In February, Singapore Finance Minister Richard Hu Tsu Tau unveiled a "most generous" budget, cutting personal tax rates, boosting rebates and unveiling a raft of incentives to please the business community.

Three months later, Deputy Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said the ruling People's Action Party (PAP) was busy drawing up an election manifesto that all but promised rewards for everyone. "The old folks must have something so that they are looked after. So too, the young people, the women and the different ethnic groups. And so we are working on it," Mr Lee told local reporters last week.

The comments from the man nominated by Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong as his preferred successor have reignited the vigorous debate about when Singapore will next go to the polls. In a country ruled by the same party for more than four decades, that guessing game can hold more allure than speculating on the probable victor.

No commentators expect Mr Goh's party to lose its grip on power the next time it asks for a renewed electoral mandate, although signs are emerging that Singapore's long-fragmented opposition could stage a tougher fight. In recent days, the Workers' Party voted to change its leader for the first time in 30 years, choosing Low Thia Khiang, Member of Parliament for Hougang, in place of veteran campaigner Joshua Jeyaretnam. Also causing a stir are plans by fellow opposition leader Chiam See Tong, head of the Singapore People's Party and MP for Potong Pasir, to form a so-called grand alliance to take on the PAP in selected constituencies.

So when are the elections likely to be? What tactics will Mr Goh and Mr Lee use to sustain the PAP's hold on power, and will a reinvigorated opposition pose more of a challenge? The answer to the first question is that no one, except the Prime Minister, knows, although long-time Singapore observers of the political scene favour September 8 as one of the more likely dates. The deadline for the next general election is August 2002, but Warren Fernandez, columnist and home-affairs editor of the Straits Times, told his readers that they may want to circle that Saturday well in advance.

Trade and Industry Minister George Yeo Yong-Boon and National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan were out pressing the flesh in recent days and "potential candidates have been spotted working the ground", Fernandez wrote.

"Signs of a slowing economy have also fuelled [election] speculation, with the word being that PAP leaders hope to turn economic adversity into electoral advantage by focusing voters' minds on how this place has been an oasis of calm amid the economic and political storms raging in the region."

Although not as harsh as elsewhere in Southeast Asia, Singapore's slowdown is certainly well under way. At the time of Mr Hu's dramatic budget giveaway in late February, economic growth was dropping to less than five per cent, down sharply from the double-digit rates of late last year. Pressured by the deterioration, the government has cut its own estimate for growth for the year to a maximum of 5.5 per cent. Politicians and economists both agree, however, that at this stage conditions are likely to worsen before they improve. Among senior-level policy-makers there is also intense concern about the painfully protracted, national political crisis in neighbouring Indonesia.

Judging by Mr Lee's comments, if Singapore does break out the ballot boxes in four months, the PAP will reiterate its long-held themes of strong leadership and rising living standards, spiced up with signals that it is continuing to move towards a more open style of government.

"When you vote, the government must be able to say 'We have delivered'. And part of the delivery will be to make sure that there's a good standard of living, there are jobs, schools and opportunities. And if there are surpluses, there's also asset-enhancement and wealth sharing," the Deputy Prime Minister said.

Alongside that carrot of a continued share-out of the nation's hard-earned spoils, there should also be the stick of withholding, or at least not prioritising, the upgrade of public estates whose occupants fail to swing their support behind the PAP. The approach of linking the pace of home improvements to the proportion of pro-PAP votes - known as "hardball politics" - was first used in the last general election in 1997. In that contest, the 10th since the PAP first swept into power, the ruling party's share of the valid votes rose four percentage points to 65 per cent as it took 81 of 83 elected positions in the parliament.

As the Singapore opposition knows from experience, taking on such a formidably well-organised and successful adversary is no easy task, but its leading members say recent developments may have strengthened their hand. If that proves to be the case, all eyes will be on the percentage of the popular vote that it captures next time round.

Mr Low's ascendancy in the Workers' Party prompted a mixed reaction. Although supporters said the youthful 45-year-old could reinvigorate the group, one party cadre has questioned his election and may challenge the vote in court, saying Mr Low failed to follow party procedure. The signs of disagreement do not augur well for the group's ability to sway voters in the months ahead.

There is also concern that outstanding lawsuits against the former head, Mr Jeyaretnam, may end up affecting the Workers' Party as a whole. At a press conference after his initial admission as secretary-general, Mr Low said: "The focus is renewal, with policies and programmes to join and dispel fears of participating in politics, especially opposition politics . . . I think that Singaporeans want a credible opposition."

There is no word yet on whether the Workers' Party will join the Singapore Democratic Alliance, the one-stop opposition grouping being put together by Mr Chiam. Reports suggest up to four smaller parties could join the Singapore People's Party in that venture, but most observers feel that real momentum would come only from a truly united opposition forum.