Thai coup could worsen
    Temasek's Shin woes

  Reuters
September 20, 2006
Singapore

By Sara Webb

SINGAPORE state firm Temasek Holdings probably thought things couldn't possibly get worse in Thailand, where it made one of its most controversial and potentially disastrous investments this year.

But Tuesday's military coup means yet more uncertainty for the Temasek-led $3.8 billion acquisition of Thaksin Shinawatra's Shin Corp, Thailand's biggest telecoms group.

First, Temasek's acquisition of Shin in January sparked a political crisis in one of Singapore's ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) neighbours, forcing then Prime Minister Thaksin to call an early election in April that has led to months of political uncertainty.

Aside from the political fall-out, the deal has proved a financial disaster for Temasek so far.

Shin's share price has plunged 37 percent since the deal was announced, yielding a loss on paper of $1.4 billion. Next, Shin's broadcaster ITV has been threatened with a fine of as much as $2 billion in a licence fee dispute -- more than half the amount that the Temasek-led consortium paid for Shin.

Now, Temasek could find it has lost its key political ally in Bangkok after the military seized control on Tuesday night.

Thaksin, who in January looked set to run Thailand for several years, was out of the country at the time and it is unclear whether he will return or contest a future election.

Analysts said in the worst-case scenario, the new regime could try to unravel Temasek's acquisition of Shin, Thailand's biggest telecoms firm, possibly through a nationalisation.

Even if a new government is formed that is pro-foreign investment, the risk is that the various investigations into the deal could be delayed.

"It could backfire. We're already seeing investigations into a variety of foreign companies," said Hugh Young, managing director at Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Ltd, which manages about $28 billion in Asia-Pacific shares and bonds.

"It's part of national politics to try to unify people behind you by pouncing on an external enemy such as foreigners," Young added.

Under its chief executive Ho Ching, the wife of Singapore's Prime Minister, Temasek has expanded aggressively across Asia in a bid to boost investment returns, buying up stakes in banks and telecoms firms.

But the Shin deal prompted political turmoil in an important neighbour after Thaksin's family made tax-free gains on the sale of their stake. The Commerce Ministry is leading an investigation into whether the Temasek-led deal broke laws barring foreign control of strategic businesses.

Some analysts said the coup could have further implications for Temasek's investment in Shin, depending on whether elections take place or what kind of interim government is installed in Thailand.

"Could they seize the asset ? I doubt it. Could they declare the sale illegal ? You just don't know, this is not a place with a consistent legal system," said one regional economist who declined to be named.

Temasek declined to comment on the situation.

"We continue to monitor the situation, and at this stage it would be premature for us to comment," a Temasek spokeswoman said in an emailed statement.

While analysts said the most extreme action would be nationalisation, several said such a move was unlikely given Thailand's generally pro-foreign investment climate and the difficulty of overturning the deal.

"It would backfire terribly on them if they tried to reverse it. I don't think there's any likelihood of the deal being rolled back," said Jim Walker, regional economist at CLSA in Hong Kong.

"It would be very dangerous if Thailand went down that route in terms of attracting investment."

Some analysts said that if Thaksin stays out of politics and business, that could even prove positive for the telecoms sector by paving the way for reform.

Previously, critics had said that Thaksin's dominance of the telecoms industry had deterred regulators from liberalising the sector, particularly in areas such as interconnection fees, 3G and mobile phone number portability.

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