Singapore Q3 GDP grows at
    annualised 5.7 percent

  Reuters
November 20, 2006
SINGAPORE

By Mia Shanley


SINGAPORE'S trade-driven economy grew 5.7 percent in the third quarter but fell short of market expectations, leading some analysts to warn of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in coming months.

The government on Monday, Nov 20, raised its growth forecast for the full year to 7.5 to 8.0 percent, from 6.5 to 7.5 percent previously, but forecast slower growth next year of 4 to 6 percent.

"The robust growth was led by manufacturing and wholesale and retail trade sectors on the back of strong external demand," the Ministry of Trade and Industry said in a statement. "Going forward, the global economic prospects are expected to moderate."

The annualised rate of growth of 5.7 percent compared with 6.8 percent expected by economists in a Reuters poll and was below a 6.0 percent clip reported in an advance estimate on Oct. 10.

From a year earlier, the economy grew 7.2 percent, below expectations for an increase of 7.4 percent and slowing down from a revised 8.2 percent in the second quarter. The advance report had said annual growth for the quarter was 7.1 percent.

The third-quarter annualised growth beat the pace of the revised 3.9 percent expansion seen in the second quarter and followed a strong 7.0 percent clip in the first quarter.

The latest figures marked the sixth consecutive quarterly expansion for the trade-dependent economy, a trend that has prompted Singapore's central bank to maintain a modestly tight monetary policy for two years.

Growth so far this year has also boosted job creation and consumer sentiment, helped lift the Singapore dollar to multi-year peaks and driven Singapore's stock market to record highs.

But some analysts have turned cautious about the outlook for growth, particularly following weaker-than-expected October exports data last week that included the first annual fall in electronics shipments in over a year. Electronics make up half of the island's non-oil exports.

Manufacturing, generating a quarter of economic activity, has expanded strongly in anticipation of end of year seasonal demand. But if the electronics market is weak, that could mean a supply overhang in the fourth quarter.

An economic slowdown in the United States -- Singapore's second-biggest export market after the European Union -- is seen as the main drag on the island's exports and growth.

A Reuters poll last week showed analysts expect 2007 economic growth to slow to 5.2 percent from an estimated 7.7 percent in 2006.

"The slight revisions still indicate that the growth trend is going down," said Leslie Khoo, economist at 4Cast. "Growth will continue to slow in Q4. I don't think we'll see a U-turn anytime soon. The electronics industry is still on a downward trend."

The Singapore dollar was trading at 1.5571/80 to the US dollar after the data, slightly weaker than 1.5561 late on Friday.

The latest figures showed the services sector grew an annualised 4.7 percent in the third quarter, slower than the revised 7.8 percent clip in the second quarter.

The manufacturing sector expanded at an annualised rate of 16.6 percent, compared with a 1.8 percent contraction in the second quarter.

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