Asean will not fail despite obvious differences

ASIAWEEK. August 6, 1999
By ROGER MITTON / SINGAPORE

Despite obvious differences, the 10 nations present a united front as the foreign ministers meet

IT WAS A MEETING where everyone wanted to look on the bright side. After the troubles of the past two years, it was understandable. Aside from the Crisis itself, the disparateresponses to it last year by members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations had caused many to question the group's relevance. At a summit in Hanoi just eight months ago, Asean's morose leaders lamented how far they had fallen. But not this time. At the foreign ministers' conclave that commenced on July 23 in Singapore, the refrain was much perkier, with speaker after speaker reasserting the association's unity and looking with cautious optimism to the new millennium. "Signs of recovery are everywhere," gushed Philippine Foreign Minister Domingo Siazon. They are, but there remain outstanding problems and divisions. Asean has yet to pull itself out of the hole it collectively fell into in 1997.

So there were cautionary voices amid the glee-talk and none more so than the ever pragmatic Singapore hosts. Opening the meet, Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong acknowledged that the worst was over but warned: "We cannot be complacent. Our nascent recovery can be easily derailed. Many internal weaknesses remain." His words could form a testament to the regional body as this century closes. For Asean's internal weaknesses relate not only to economic matters, but to political divisions among its members and between its dialogue partners like the US, China and Japan.

Still, the participants were determined to put a positive spin on the proceedings. One idea formally embraced at the meeting was to organize overseas Asean roadshows to attract investment to the region. The hope is that such outings would help economic recovery and show that Asean can act in concert. Says Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar: "We need to convey positive perceptions - a feeling of togetherness which we have achieved, but which has not been projected so well."

The ministers also sought, somewhat less successfully, to bolster their cohesion by reiterating fealty to the principle of non-interference in each other's affairs. Last year, Thailand's Surin Pitsuwan caused a stir within the group by suggesting that the principle be re-evaluated - an idea that was badly received by all but the Philippines. In Singapore, Surin still boldly talked of reform and the "need to rethink and reinvent." But he studiously avoided any mention of the non-interference credo - perhaps wisely, since his colleagues restated their unwavering support for it.

Says one senior official: "Surin was fundamentally wrong. In Asean, diversity is a fact of life. We have democracies, full and partial; we have absolute monarchies; we have communist dictatorships; we have military dictatorships. With that diversity, if you start advocating interference you are going to break up the group." In like fashion, Myanmar Foreign Minister Win Aung said: "A country's affairs should be handled by its own people, and international issues should be solved through negotiations and not through military means."

On Myanmar itself, the group stood united in insisting that no meeting with the European Union could take place if, as the EU had earlier demanded, Myanmar was excluded. Asked what would happen to the roadshow if the EU wanted to block Myanmar's involvement, an Asean official replied: "If it is private sector, the EU will not object. If it is government, we can send a lower-level official from one of the Myanmar embassies in Europe." In a small breakthrough, EU officials sat down at the table with Win Aung and expressed a wish to start a "meaningful political dialogue" with Yangon. But, added Tarja Halonen, president of the Council of the EU, "it is up to the Burmese authorities to show progress and willingness to deal with the issues of human rights and democratic development."

Asean's efforts to turn around the "perception" of disunity were not just confined to the roadshow idea; the grouping also reiterated the one-China policy. Says one official: "We can't afford to do otherwise. The Taiwan situation could affect our regional economic recovery if it gets out of hand." This was hardly new, but it was significant in light of recent tensions after Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui's remark about conducting "state-to-state" relations with the mainland.

Ironically, Lee's declaration served to propel the US and China closer together, after a period of deep-freeze precipitated by the US bombing of China's embassy in Belgrade and allegations of Chinese espionage activities in America. In Singapore, Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan stuck to Beijing's severe stance - "if there occurs any action for Taiwan independence or any attempt by foreign forces to separate Taiwan from the motherland, the Chinese government and people will not sit back and do nothing" - but the Americans were determined to assuage the Chinese. US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said there had been an "easing of tensions" and a restoration of the previous level of communication. This was underlined by the resumption of trade talks in Beijing between US and Chinese officials - the first such meeting since the bombing in May.

Besides Taiwan, other areas of conflict discussed included the Korean peninsula, the recent India-Pakistan conflict at Kargil in Kashmir, nuclear non-proliferation - and that perennial sticking point, the Spratly Islands. With sovereignty disputes flaring up again in the South China Sea, Asean members felt an urge to forge guidelines to forestall problems. This led to the new Asean buzz term, "preventive diplomacy" - a great sound bite, but no one was sure what kind of reality it reflected. Tang pointed out: "It is necessary to first discuss the concept, definition, principles and scope of preventive diplomacy." Singapore Foreign Minister S. Jayakumar said Asean would prepare a paper explaining it. That epitomized the group's consensual and often crab-like way of action: having agreed that something would be a good idea, it is given a high-sounding name, provisionally adopted - and only then is an effort made to figure out what it means.

The same noble intentions but clumsy procedures characterized another key development of the meet: a proposed code of conduct for the Spratly Islands. The Philippines, which has recently been involved in serious altercations with China over several islets (including the sinking of two Chinese fishing boats), decided that such a code would be "eminently desirable." So a draft was drawn up by the Philippines and Vietnam setting rules for the Asean states, with an addendum on how and when China - as a claimant nation - might be brought into the process.

Proving that group solidarity has its limits, some senior officials said that Malaysia, recently accused of building structures on one of the reefs, objected to the inclusion of China. This led to suspicions that Kuala Lumpur was acting on behalf of Beijing. There had been talk that China was planning its own code of conduct and was miffed at Asean getting to it first. Says one official: "China did not want to get drawn into a discussion with us at this time because that would pre-empt their own code." The Chinese, it was whispered, wanted to stay out, but did not want to irk its Asean friends - so it persuaded the Malaysians to object. Syed Hamid denies such speculations: "I have no inkling of such a thing happening." China later said it would be amenable to a "guideline" on the Spratlys, though not a full treaty. The group will submit a proposed code of conduct to a working committee in October.

Overall, despite the obvious differences over issues like the Spratlys and non-interference, the atmosphere at this Singapore meet was palpably cheerier than at December's summit in Hanoi. There, stark divisions over Cambodia's admission into Asean had split the group and compounded the despair caused by the Crisis. Now Cambodian Foreign Minister Hor Namhong, despite a dubious past as a Khmer Rouge man, is one of the boys.

Summing up the mood, Jayakumar declared: "I can state with confidence that we have taken a firm step in beginning a process of self-renewal." His prime minister used bolder words. "Asean will not fail," said Goh. "It cannot be allowed to fail." The test now is turning those words into concrete action.