Should the iron fist be tempered by compassion?

THEY are Indonesians from various parts of the archipelago and they want to get to Singapura: the Lion City, the land of plenty and opportunity.

But unknown to them, their destination will be the lion's den.

If caught, they face a certain fate: jail, cane and repatriation.

For in the cold eyes of the law, they are termed as illegal immigrants, and illegals have been the numero uno target of arrests over the last few weeks.

Police Coast Guard has stepped up shore patrols, immigration officers are on higher alert, and more raids have been conducted on factories, workers' quarters, flats and even forest hideouts.

Since the beginning of this year, more than 1500 of them have been nabbed, and the number looks set to rise. In fact, the figure has increased from 5710 in 1996 to 7600 last year.

They include not just Indonesians, but also Chinese and Myanmar nationals, Thais and Indians.

Exactly how many are Indonesians, the police are not telling.

But observers believe that more will try to smuggle themselves in over the next few months, given the unrelenting economic pressures in Indonesia.

They also believe that Malaysia will bear the brunt of the exodus because of its ethnic composition and long coastline.

But how serious will the problem be for Singapore? How should it tackle it? Why has it taken such a tough stand? Can it not show more compassion for its Asean neighbour?

Insight speaks to experts on Indonesia, analysts and MPs this week, and they are convinced that the situation will take a turn for the worse before it gets any better.

They point to the economic problems that will push some to hunger and desperation -- a currency which has lost three-quarters of its value, food prices gone out of control, increased unemployment estimated now to be more than eight million, and a worsening drought.

Even if the reforms now being undertaken work, it will take at least another two to three years for Indonesia to recover.

In the meantime, more will try to eke out a living abroad, especially when they have been lured with the false promise of abundant jobs and fast money.

As political scientist Bilveer Singh puts it: "Because of the impression given partly by our leadership and the media in general, people think that Singapore is not suffering from the contagion effect of the crisis. We are like a beautiful flower -- more bees will come."

Although Indonesia has said it will step up efforts to stop its people from leaving the country illegally, the task will be hard, if not impossible.

An analyst, who declines to be named, comments: "It is such a big place and very hard to police. So I do not blame them if there are security lapses, plus there is a fairly high level of corruption -- policemen do not actually get paid a lot."

For now, it is just the father bee that has been swarming towards the island. What if the mother bee, sister bee, grandpa bee and little bee also want to come?

If Singapore turns them away even after refuelling their boats and replenishing their food and water supplies, human rights groups and the international community may point an accusing finger at the Republic for its "inhumane" treatment.

Political groups may also exploit the situation to hit out at "a "Chinese government pushing away non-Chinese".

But if Singapore relents and agrees to take in even one, there will be no stopping the rest from clamouring to come.

Even it wants to house them temporarily in camps, such as in a southern island, will the help of international relief agencies be forthcoming?

If there is any cause for comfort, a mass exodus reminiscent of the Vietnamese boat people after the fall of South Vietnam to the communists in 1975 is unlikely to recur.

The redeeming factors, say observers, are these: President Suharto, who is still in power, and the army, which is still behaving. Says Associate Professor Leo Suryadinata, who specialises in Indonesian studies at the National University of Singapore: "There is no obvious political crisis yet. As long as the political situation is manageable, the food situation is going to improve.

"It is unlikely that we will see a major refugee wave comparable to the Vietnamese boat people."

Agreeing, Pasir Ris GRC MP Ong Kian Min says: "Unless there is a bloodbath and the army starts massacring people, I do not think we will see a mass exodus."

In fact, it is to prevent such a haemorrhage that Singapore has taken a tough stance against all illegals.

The signal it wants to send out is strong and clear: no illegal immigrant, whatever his nationality or no matter how pressing his circumstance, will be allowed to gain entry.

Thus, punitive sentences have been enhanced. Illegals prosecuted since March 19 have been meted out enhanced sentences of between four and six weeks' jail and four to six strokes of the cane.

The courts are also coming down more harshly on overstayers and those who harbour, smuggle in or employ illegals.

The hardline, no-nonsense approach is understandably borne out of the republic's experience with Vietnamese refugees in the 1970s.

Then, seven countries had promised resettlement for the refugees, but not all kept to their word, saddling Singapore with the task of hosting thousands of refugees.

As Home Affairs Minister Wong Kan Seng said recently: "We have learnt our lesson and will no longer accept any refugees even if third countries promise to resettle them."

The tough policy appears to be backed by many, and the reasons are obvious -- Singapore's tiny land space and limited resources just cannot withstand the load of even a small percentage of the Indonesian population.

The thought is daunting -- if only 1 per cent or two million of Indonesia's population of more than 200 million sail to Singapore's shores and beg to come in, the island will be under siege.

The presence of illegal immigrants, nameless and unidentified, will also pose a security threat to the people.

Says Hong Kah GRC MP Kenneth Chen: "If you let them in, what can they do? They cannot work here. The chances of them engaging in illegal activities are very high."

But surely, some will say, why can't Singapore afford to be more humane?

When asked if Singapore is too harsh, Mr Steffan Bodemar, the representative for the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees' (UNHCR) regional office in Jakarta, declines to play judge.

In fact, he says, these illegals are not even counted as refugees, as most of them are economic hardship cases.

But genuine refugees should be given special consideration, he says, although he adds that "I am not saying that this is the case now."

But a concerned Singaporean, who wants to be known only as Mr Charles Tay, says: "Why pay only lip service to Asean solidarity? Why not turn this into a win-win situation for all?

"These people need jobs, and we need labourers. We can set up an employment agency in Batam and make them legal workers."

But some call this misplaced kindness, even fallacious thinking.

Singapore, they argue, is not a welfare state. Legalising illegals will only attract more and Singapore will be in a tighter bind than before.

Prof Suryadinata, a Singaporean, is shocked at the suggestion: "Yes, we help each other, but provided it will not bring us down.

"Asean solidarity is still based on national interests. We have to be realistic here."

Some will also point out that Singapore is already helping Indonesia, such as by extending the US$5-billion loan and looking for support for its proposed multilateral financing scheme.

The Singapore Red Cross is also aiming to raise $5 million in food and medical aid, a move which some believe is made no doubt with the government's blessing.

But Singapore can do more, and Dr Singh is one firm advocate.

The government, he says, should adopt a higher profile in the relief efforts, such as by sending donations to the Indonesian government to purchase food.

"If we know how to benefit from our neighbours' good times, then we should learn how to live with our neighbours' bad times.

"Then people will not see us as a sucker, who goes out there, sucks and come back. We do pay back."

And the best person to do it, he thinks, is Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong, whose ties with President Suharto are so cordial that they "defy description" and who is "known as a man with a big heart and humanitarian touch".

Indeed, no sooner had these words been uttered than news was received of Mr Goh's latest offer of a US$2-billion trade financing scheme aimed at speeding up Indonesia's economic recovery.

The message is thus clear: in turning away illegal immigrants, Singapore will have to balance its iron fist with a heart of gold.

Published in the Straits Times. March 28, 1998