ASEAN as divided, but trying to hang together

SINGAPORE PRIME MINISTER Goh Chok Tong's stark opening statement to the 6th Summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Hanoi said it all: "This has been a traumatic year for ASEAN members." And how. The region's devastating economic crisis has certainly left the member states reeling. What has made the year even more troubling is the seeming discord in the group's ranks. Never before have the members differed with each other so intractably and so publicly - leading many observers to even fear for ASEAN's very survival.

In Hanoi, the point was underscored by an unresolved split over what should have been a simple decision: the admission of Cambodia into ASEAN as its 10th and final member. "It's never happened like this before," said Thai Foreign Minister Surin Pitsuwan, referring to the tawdry impasse that festered on until it clouded the summit meeting itself.

Yet, in truth, the unseemly charade over Cambodia's entry was merely symptomatic of other fault lines that have wracked the association over the past year. ASEAN's once-inviolable principle of non-interference in each other's affairs remains an issue causing much dissension and debate. The Crisis should have acted as a common foe for the members - but instead they have been going their own separate and often conflicting ways in search of a solution. Little wonder Malaysian PM Mahathir Mohamad remarked at the meet: "ASEAN's responses to the challenges confronting the region have created the impression of an ASEAN in disarray, its members at odds with one another."

Philippine President Joseph Ejercito Estrada echoed Mahathir's views: "Doubts have been raised about the ASEAN spirit, about our solidarity, about our credibility." Thai PM Chuan Leekpai said bluntly: "Some have gone so far as to write us off." The only consensus, it seems, is that there is no consensus. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Stanley Roth has struck a dark note, voicing his concern at the potential for instability. "Given the importance of a cohesive ASEAN to regional stability, the recent rise in tensions between several ASEAN members is necessarily troubling, even if these tensions will not likely escalate into conflicts," he said. How did the much-lauded grouping, which celebrated its 30th birthday last year, descend to this?

It all began in July last year when Thailand's currency was depegged from the U.S. dollar and promptly went into free fall. The region's other currencies - and their economies - followed. That same month, plans to admit three new members to ASEAN hit a snag when one of the trio, Cambodia, erupted into violence during Hun Sen's putsch against his then fellow co-premier Prince Norodom Ranariddh. Myanmar and Laos were inducted, but Cambodia's entry was deferred until it fulfilled certain conditions - namely forming an effective government. Last month, it did just that and its admission at the Hanoi summit was widely predicted.

Given that host Vietnam was avidly pushing for his country's entry, Hun Sen may have thought he had a done deal. But the group split over the issue in a most public fashion. A six-strong faction led by Vietnam and Indonesia championed Hun Sen's cause. Opposing were Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines. Both sides dug in and openly acted as if their view was certain to prevail. The Vietnamese, for instance, arranged for the Cambodian flag to fly alongside the other nine and even set up a seat for Hun Sen on the stage for the opening ceremony. But the two sides were still stubbornly at odds when their leaders arrived on Dec. 14.

That night, the summiteers locked horns behind closed doors. Indonesia's new president, B.J. Habibie, led the pro-admission attack. An official at the meeting later told Asiaweek: "Habibie was going into all this mechanical and aerospace lingo: Let's get Cambodia in now and lift the ASEAN spirit up into the skies, that type of thing. You guys are just looking at the micro picture, you have to look at the macro! We can have a win-win situation - that was his favorite phrase."

GOH, WHO WAS CHAIRING the meeting, listened politely and then responded in very practical terms, saying that while the Cambodians now have a government, they have not met the other admission terms - namely, setting up a Senate and amending the Constitution. Such was the stand-off, says the unnamed official, that "there was even a proposal to break the tradition of consensus and have a vote. The majority would prevail. But we felt that would not have been a good way for Cambodia to come in. Better to let the dust settle and then they can come in with honor and dignity later."

To appease host Vietnam, a compromise was reached whereby a special ceremony admitting Cambodia would be held in Hanoi at a later date, after Hun Sen had met the outstanding conditions. But even after this agreement, members conspired to give the impression of divisiveness. The losing six tried to convince people that what had not happened, had happened. At the opening ceremony, Habibie gushed: "May I seize this opportunity to join my colleagues in warmly welcoming Cambodia to the ASEAN family as a full member" - leaving Goh to clarify in his speech that Cambodia had not yet been admitted but would be sometime "in the not-too-distant future." Still the contradictions continued as Vietnamese Foreign Minister Nguyen Manh Cam referred later to "full member" Cambodia. With both sides speaking at cross-purposes, the summit reinforced the leaders' own comments about perceptions of a weakened grouping that had already lost much credibility and effectiveness.

Another aspect of this issue rankled: the way it distracted the summiteers from the far more important issue of dealing with the Crisis. "Economic recovery is the key," says Sukhumbhand Paribatra, Thailand's deputy foreign minister. The leaders did issue a "statement on bold measures" designed to bring about a recovery. But the group's reaction to the Crisis was as divided as its sentiments over Cambodia's immediate admission.

Mahathir derided the kind of rigorous fiscal regime recommended by the International Monetary Fund to deal with the Crisis. He said Malaysia abandoned such measures because they "worsened the economic situation and failed to restore foreign investor confidence." Yet sitting behind him was Chuan, whose government has steadfastly - and fairly successfully - followed an IMF program. Meanwhile, Brunei's Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah appeared to reject insulation measures taken by Malaysia when he said: "It is vital we regain investor confidence and keep our economies open."

Other contrasts were evident in the behavior and standing of the leaders. Most noted was the weakened clout of Indonesia, whose veteran former leader, Suharto, was forced out of office earlier this year. His successor Habibie was effusive in the closed-door sessions, but failed to make much impact. Said one attendee: "Suharto would have spoken two or three words and that would have carried a lot of weight. But with Habibie, there is an assessment that he might not be there long and that he's a sort of gadfly. So there were quick ripostes from Goh Chok Tong and the others." In the past, noted ASEAN officials, no one would have talked back to Suharto as Goh did to Habibie. It was another sign of ASEAN's traumatic rite of passage.

Fellow new boy Estrada acquitted himself well by all accounts, but few expect him to help galvanize the group. The normally provocative Mahathir - perhaps distracted by the trial of ousted deputy PM Anwar Ibrahim at home - "was relatively restrained and sober by his standards," says one official. Chuan arrived with a high-powered ministerial delegation, but some felt he was not asserting himself enough on the international stage. "We wanted him to exert more leadership," says Thai academic Suchit Bunbongkarn. "It's time for Thailand to play a more leading role, because Mahathir has problems, Estrada has problems, Habibie has problems. We need somebody."

Indeed, there seems to be a dire need for new leaders of the stature of Suharto and Lee Kuan Yew. The sense is that the veterans are jaded and the new ones lackluster. "East Asia lacks a common vision," says Singapore diplomat Tommy Koh. Then again, says a diplomat in Kuala Lumpur says, "ASEAN needs time to adjust to its new, less-developed members. It has to let the situation stabilise in Indonesia, and Malaysia's leadership may change within a few years."

For all ASEAN's problems, all is not gloom and doom. Japan, a guest at the summit along with China and South Korea, pledged additional aid to help revitalise East Asian economies. The Chinese, for their part, proposed a high-level regional meeting on the Crisis. And a slow recovery has already begun in some countries.

The open verbal jousting may not necessarily be a bad thing either, with some seeing it as a healthy sign of the group's maturation. Thailand and the Philippines, in particular, who have pushed for the open expression of differing views, are not dismayed by the bickering. "It proves we can have real differences without creating a permanent cleavage," says a Thai official. Adds Sukhumbhand: "Far from being divisive, this attitudinal change can alert ASEAN to the gravity of domestically generated transnational problems." Says Surin: "We will find a way out of this image of division - it's a learning process." The members clearly need to learn fast. And if they do, do not write ASEAN off just yet.

THREE DECADES AND COUNTING

WHAT ASEAN HAS ACHIEVED...

Peace and stability: Has kept even major disputes - remember Sabah? - from turning into conflict.

Indochina activism:Brought Vietnam in from the cold and helped manage an orderly, if imperfect, resolution of the civil war in Cambodia.

Economic integration: The ASEAN Free Trade Area initiative is now the centerpiece of cooperative efforts.

Regional security balance:While the U.S. will keep the peace in the Pacific for some time, the ASEAN Regional Forum is the only multilateral security grouping in the world that includes all the major powers.

...AND WHAT IT HAS LEFT UNDONE

The Crisis:Recovery may be in sight, but bold measures or no, East Asia is not out of the woods yet.

Dealing with China:Both sides are still feeling their way in an uneasy relationship, complicated by the perennial Spratlys issue.

The Southeast Asia nuclear-free zone:ASEAN members have signed on, but what about the guys who actually have the weapons?

Non-interference and consensus: Critics say they are outdated concepts in need of review if ASEAN is to evolve.

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