A place for business, not politics
Far Eastern Economic Review July 3, 1997
Singapore Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew spoke at the REVIEW's "Countdown to 1997" conference on June 24. This column is excerpted from his speech.
HONG Kong under British rule was a place for business, not politics. For that reason, it was very successful. However, in the last five years, under Governor Chris Patten, the British have tried to implement a political agenda for Hong Kong. It was too much, too late. Patten's political agenda has provided a stick for foreign lobby groups to beat China with. The American media, human-rights groups and Congress have taken up this stick. The United States Congress even approved a bill calling on China to honour its promises on Hong Kong.
They are sending warning signals to China, at a time when President Bill Clinton has announced his policies to engage China in depth. China is aware that the world is watching, and I believe it will go out of its way to show that Hong Kong can thrive and prosper economically after its return to China. But it will not tolerate politicking in Hong Kong that will disturb China's political system.
The political stakes for China are high. As China's leaders have said, the Hong Kong formula provides the model for China's reunification policy towards Taiwan as well. The international community, particularly the Western media, will scrutinize and judge every development contrary to this formula. I believe China's leaders will observe the Basic Law because it is in their own national interest. Those groups pressing China on Hong Kong may find they have helped to frustrate themselves, because China will make doubly sure it does not breach the Joint Declaration and the Basic Law. Then China will grow faster and become stronger sooner, a result contrary to what these groups want.
After July 1, 1997, Hong Kong people will decide on their future. They are not short of advice from many well-meaning liberals in America on how to stand up for their democratic freedoms and human rights. The U.S. Congress has already made it clear that U.S.-China relations would depend on China's treatment of Hong Kong. In March 1997, the U.S. Congress voted almost unanimously to pass the Hong Kong Reversion Act, which contains a checklist to gauge Hong Kong's autonomy after the handover. If the U.S. is not satisfied with Hong Kong's autonomy, the president could remove some of Hong Kong's trading privileges such as separate textile quotas.
Hong Kong would do well to remember that the American media, Congress and administration are not as interested in what happens to the 6.5 million people in Hong Kong as in the 1.2 billion people in China. Hong Kong has become the point of contention with China.
Hong Kong should watch carefully what all China's neighbours in Asia are doing. None of them are about to join the front-line of forces trying to advance democracy and human rights in Hong Kong or China. Instead all are quietly studying developments among the big three in the Asia-Pacific, the U.S., Japan and China, and carefully adjusting and positioning themselves. The people of East Asia are aware that as the situation evolves, they will have to adjust to the powerful trends in economic development with the resultant shifts in the balance of forces between the major countries. Hong Kong should do no less.
Hong Kong people had to be hard-nosed realists to have survived so far and so well. Hong Kong's chief executive will have to balance skilfully different interests and pressures on Hong Kong. He has to win the confidence of China's leaders. If they are confident that he understands and will uphold China's basic national interests and goals, then they will give him the leeway to safeguard Hong Kong's interests within these limits, especially the interests of its business and professional classes. He has to protect Hong Kong's interests, and these interests may not always coincide with China's. He also has to show the U.S. Congress that he has maintained Hong Kong as a separate administrative unit from China, so that Hong Kong can continue to enjoy separate textile quotas and other existing advantages. And he has to handle Hong Kong's domestic affairs in a manner that retains the confidence of the majority of the people of Hong Kong, especially the businessmen and professionals without whom Hong Kong will not thrive.
Hong Kong has much going for it after 1997: a hard-working labour force, a confident and shrewd business community, a capable bureaucracy and a hands-off policy from China in economic affairs. Hong Kong will be off to a good start, but it must work hard to consolidate this advantage. During the next 50 years, other cities, both in the region as well as in the mainland, will strive to catch up. As China's economic reforms continue, the rest of China will look increasingly more like Hong Kong, as they try to play by the same rules. Ultimately, the test of Hong Kong's success after the handover will depend on how Hong Kong uses its autonomy and separate economic identity from China to act as a catalyst for China's growth, and in the process becomes the most prosperous city in the greater China of the mainland, Taiwan and Hong Kong.
If Singapore did not have confidence in the future of China, we would not be investing either in China or in Hong Kong. I do not believe that relations between China and the U.S. will deteriorate to a point that the U.S. will embargo China, although there will be problems from time to time. I expect good sense will eventually prevail on both sides and there will be no rupture in economic and political relations.