Lee Sr urges Bush not to confront China
 
Financial Times
February 28, 2001
By John Thornhill, Sheila McNulty and Rohit Jaggi in Singapore

LEE Kuan Yew, Singapore's founder and elder statesman, is urging the new US administration to consult its Asian allies before it adopts a tougher approach towards China and risks unsettling the region.

Mr Lee, who has advised a succession of US presidents, said he hoped President George W. Bush would re-analyse the situation across Asia over the next 12-18 months before taking any steps that might antagonise Beijing.

"Republicans have been out of office for eight years. They have taken certain stands. They believe Clinton was soft on China. What does not being soft mean?" Mr Lee asked in an interview with the FT.

"US-China is the single most important relationship, one that will decide the future of the Asia-Pacific region. If relations can remain stable, on an even keel, we could have 20, 30 years of growth."

On the campaign trail, Mr Bush criticised President Bill Clinton's handling of China saying he would regard the country as a "strategic competitor" rather than a "strategic partner".

The Bush administration's insistence on promoting a national missile defence scheme has also led to a chill in relations with Beijing, which claims the move would upset the world's strategic balance.

However, Mr Lee said it was important for the US to continue to play a leading role in Asia to balance China's growing power. "The balance has got to depend on a strong America, a revitalised Japan and a vigorous Korea," he said. "I don't see a balance inherent within Asia itself. China is just too big. You can put the rest of east Asia together - it just wouldn't tip the scales."

The 77-year-old Mr Lee predicted that China's increasingly well-educated urban population would demand a bigger say in how the country was run leading to a further opening up of the system.

"I do not believe there is only one road to democracy, or only one kind of democracy," he said. "There is no way you can govern a well-informed, large managerial-professional class without taking their views into account. How they take them into account is another matter."

Singapore's senior minister said China's increasing economic power would compel the 10 countries in the Association of South-East Asian Nations (Asean) to pursue further integration and promote their market of 500m people more effectively.

"Without the attraction of a more unified market in Asean, separately we are going to lose more FDI [foreign direct investment]. It is already down by about 40-50 per cent compared to pre- crisis investment figures and China's has been shooting up."

Mr Lee said the opening of the Chinese market under the strictures of the World Trade Organisation would create some opportunities for Asean'exporters. But one only had to look at the economic success of Hong Kong and Taiwan to envisage how tough a competitor China could be. "Multiply Taiwan's 21m people by a factor of 50 and you can get an idea of the impact of that over the next 30 to 40 years," he said.