According to Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong, the calamitous news that Singapore's will not be able to sustain last year's growth of 9.9 per cent is cause for national soul-searching - and the reason people cannot afford the luxury of throwing in their lot with the country's disparate opposition parties.

"Under such a dire situation, do you think Singaporeans are going to fool around with their votes?" Mr Goh said this week on his way home from a tour of eastern Europe. "If they do, and I think if things go wrong for them, well it's no consolation for me to say, `I told you so'."

Singaporeans hardly have a history of electoral recklessness.

In the 36 years since Singapore broke away from the Malaysian federation, the People's Action Party has enjoyed unbroken rule, rarely conceding more than a handful of seats to opposition candidates.

But for the proud and paternalistic leaders of the PAP, even a small erosion in electoral support sparks internal party hand-wringing and punitive strikes against wayward voters (who risk losing funding for their public housing estates) and opposition politicians (who risk having their robust campaign comments turned into crippling defamation damages).

General elections are not due in Singapore until August next year, but there are growing indications that the government is considering an early poll, perhaps within the next few months - not least to avoid a deteriorating economic outlook.

The government has prepared the ground for an early election with a budget last month that provided generous personal and corporate tax cuts.

Already the guessing game over election timing is becoming a fixation of the local media.

While no one doubts another handsome PAP victory whenever the election is called, this poll is expected to be particularly important in setting the country's future direction and Goh Chok Tong has a lot riding on the outcome.

Analysts believe even a small erosion in support for the government will weaken his decade-long grip on the leadership.

When he was handed the prime ministership in 1990 by elder statesman Lee Kuan Yew, it was generally believed that Mr Goh was keeping the seat warm for Mr Lee's eldest son and current Deputy Prime Minister, Lee Hsien Loong. And, despite his success and popularity, it was presumed that Mr Goh would hand over the baton after the next election.

But in January the 60-year-old Mr Goh caused a stir when he said he had no plans for early retirement and intended to stick around as Prime Minister for at least another six years.

"By 2007, I will be about 66," he said, brushing aside suggestions that his decision would fuel tensions within the leadership. "So I would like to see a fresh team in charge at that time. I don't expect factions to break out, I don't expect personal rivalries."

It is considered unlikely that Lee Hsien Loong, who has already waited 17 years in the parliament to collect his inheritance, or Lee Kuan Yew - who remains a powerful figure as Singapore's Senior Minister - will patiently endorse the Goh timetable if there is any serious slippage in the party's electoral standing, or in the country's economic fortunes.