A quarterly poll of 29 professional forecasters by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), the de facto central bank, produced a median forecast of minus 0.6 percent GDP growth in 2001, followed by 4.8 percent growth in 2002.

The government's latest official forecast is for 0.5 to 1.5 percent growth in 2001, which many economists now find a bit too optimistic following the 0.9 percent contraction in the second quarter from a year ago.

The MAS survey covers professional economists from banks, securities houses and research institutions.

After growing by a stunning 9.9 percent last year, Singapore's economy has gone into reverse due to slack global demand for electronics exports and the slowdowns in the United States and other key markets.

The latest MAS survey produced a wide range of 2001 growth forecasts, from a fall of 4.4 percent to a rise of 1.8 percent.

For 2002, the forecast range was for growth of 2.2 to 6.8 percent.

But the MAS said the respondents "also highlighted further downside risks to the recovery process, including the possibility of Japanese yen depreciation and weak economic conditions in Europe."

The respondents attached an average probability of 52 percent that GDP growth will fall below zero this year in Singapore.

The survey said that almost all respondents expect the weakness in external demand to result in a further decline in GDP in the third quarter.

The economists polled do not expect recently introduced special off-budget measures to provide much support to domestic economic activity.

On the key non-oil domestic exports -- regarded as the main barometer of Singapore's economic output -- the survey expects an average fall of 10 percent for the whole year.

Unemployment is expected at 3.5 percent in 2001 and 3.0 percent in 2002 while inflation will remain below 2.0 percent until next year.
                                                            Home