| Jobs dry up as rainy day arrives | ||||
Star (Malaysia) September 30, 2001 Insight: Down south By Seah Chiang Nee A DOCTOR closes his clinic to give private tuition; a jobless executive starts a firm to run corporate errands; and thousands of new graduates continue writing application letters. This is how some Singaporeans are grappling with an economy turned sour. They are not the worst cases. To date, 300 United Airlines workers in Singapore have been laid off in the aftermath of the Sept 11 terrorist attacks in USA. Some 95 percent are cabin crews. Northwest Airlines, another US carrier, is also downsizing and 58 Singaporean jobs hang in the balance. The number of unemployed is rapidly rising. An air of despondency hangs over the city as it braces itself for a long dark period. A London magazine has described Singapore as a city-state that is suffering the torture of a thousand cuts. The country has stepped up domestic security, especially its airports, harbour and petrochemical complexes, among others, while worrying about the prospect of radical Muslim backlash in the region. Last year's 10.1 percent GDP growth is likely to turn into a 2 percent decline in 2001. Jobs, the foundation of middle-class prosperity here, will be the worst hit. The government now says the estimated 20,000 retrenchments, already a very high forecast, will be exceeded. Several large employers, from SIA to banks, US multi-national corporations to government-linked ones, are virtually queuing up to shed workers. "Today is a rainy day and I think tomorrow will continue to rain," said Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong, who has announced a second off-budget package in mid-October to boost the economy. "We will be working out programmes to ensure that those who will be retrenched in the months ahead will at least have their living expenses taken care of," Goh promised. For Singapore, rising unemployment is not just a passing cloud. It's a long-term fundamental problem as more manufacturing moves abroad. This is forcing the ruling People's Action Party (PAP), a "democratic socialist" party, to return to the "socialist" part it had long been cutting down. Unlike in other developed countries, unemployment dole had always been frowned upon as something that promoted laziness. Even public subsidies had been cut down over the years. Today they exist in only three areas -- education, health and public housing. The new economy and a widening digital gap are forcing a rethink. Prepare for a prolonged downturn, warned Deputy Prime Minister Tony Tan. He said Singapore needed a new economic strategy to meet challenges posed by major world developments. During his National Day speech, Goh had announced a special "New Singapore" type of shares to be distributed to lower-income Singaporeans that could be converted to cash. He gave no details but Morgan Stanley said it could be substantial. "Based on our estimates, giving away half the fiscal surplus (US$4.5bil or S$8bil) to 1.5 million eligible Singaporean citizens would amount to about US$3000 per person," it added. Most of it will be given to older unskilled workers who are on the wrong side of the knowledge divide. Many of them have lost their jobs and failed to get new ones. The second package will be bigger than the first (worth S$2.2bil) announced earlier to boost the economy. "The World Trade Center attacks have increased the urgency and the scale of measures required," said Minister for Trade and Industry George Yeo. "The war has not yet started. We do not know how long it will last and what all the consequences will be," he said. "We are on the pessimistic side." Much of it will go towards pumping more money into infrastructure projects, like bringing forward or building more schools and junior colleges, road works and public transportation systems. Singapore's standards of living have evidently declined. The values of its equities have dropped. With air travel taking a blow on the chin, retrenchment seems unavoidable in SIA, some hotels and department stores. Taxi drivers' takings have dropped by 30 percent; so have the earnings of most restaurants, bars and nightclubs. Adding to Singapore's plight are many of the 900,000 foreign workers here. Although the government is refusing to earmark them for retrenchment, the market is doing that. From construction workers to maids, some are losing their jobs. Among the skilled, hard-pressed employers now prefer to employ locals to foreigners because they save on housing and other expenses that foreign staff needs. The number of Singaporeans looking for jobs online grew 33 percent in July compared to 108,340 in April. Among those who feel the pinch of the recession are fresh graduates. Nanyang Technological University reported that 30 percent to 40 percent of its class of 2001 are still unemployed. Last year, 85 percent were working within three months of graduation. "There are just not enough jobs to go around," said a university official. At a recent job fair, only 34 employers took part, compared to 60 last year. Many of them were not actively recruiting. They included government ministries, statutory boards, insurance companies and information-technology firms, offering only 54 different positions, half of which were for engineers. "No one asked about starting pay," said a human resource manager. "People are more worried about getting a job than about salaries. This is a sign of the times." A major plan to retrain older, unskilled workers is proceeding. Visit any community centre and one may find small groups of senior citizens struggling to learn how to use the computer. Several communities have organised self-help groups to provide relief to the jobless by organising them to provide basic services to residents - for a fee. This includes household plumbing, fixing air-conditioners or repairing the computer. There is no immediate light at the end of the tunnel. Apart from the economic decline, Singapore is worried about regional stability should fighting break out. Radicals in Indonesia, the world's biggest Muslim country, have vowed a jihad if US attacks Afghanistan, especially if there are civilian deaths. Scenes of angry Indonesian demonstrators threatening to attack Americans, it is feared, may keep foreign investors away from Southeast Asia - for a long time. Seah Chiang Nee is a veteran journalist and editor of the information website littlespeck.com |
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