Ansett's best bet may be Singapore
 
The Australian
October 8, 2001

Eric Ellis in Singapore

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Q
ANTAS chief Geoff Dixon might permit himself an ironic smile at the turn of events at Ansett.

Three months ago, his proposal that Qantas buy Singapore Airlines out of the struggling Air New Zealand and, in return, leave SIA to own and run Ansett was categorically dismissed by SIA's chief executive Cheong Choong Kong.

"We've always looked at Air New Zealand and Ansett as a pair. Each needs the other," Mr Cheong said. "If Air New Zealand were to be only a small regional airline with no growth, that's the best way of getting us out (of the shareholding). We wouldn't be interested."

But Mr Dixon's proposal is precisely the scenario emerging for SIA, likely the only scenario that could see Ansett permanently back in the air.

SIA won't face any opposition because Ansett's administrator, Prime Minister John Howard and Opposition leader Kim Beazley are all united in their enthusiasm for SIA's involvement.

Ansett administrators Mark Mentha and Mark Korda of Andersen confirmed yesterday they had offered SIA an equity stake and a management role in Ansett. "SIA may be engaged by the voluntary administrators as a consultant to develop a business plan for Ansett Mark II," the administrators and SIA said in a statement.

And Mr Howard said the government was not opposed to SIA becoming involved. "In fact, it was something we thought was a good idea. Of course I would welcome Singapore being interested in Ansett Mark II or III . . . if that comes to fruition," he said.

Opposition leader Kim Beazley also gave the idea approval. "It would be magnificent if that is the case," he said.

For SIA, taking a stake in Ansett could help the Singaporeans re-coup at least some of the $A500 million it has staked in Air NZ,where its 25 per cent stake has shrunk to just four per cent. Its Air NZ shareholding is akin to that of an illiquid internet play. The Singaporeans are down more than 90 per cent on their stake entered in April last year. By any measure, its been a disaster. And since the September 11 terrorist attacks, SIA's investment portfolio has been a shocker.

That's because, strategically, there's a hint of Swissair about SIA.

Like the Swiss carrier, SIA lacks the critical mass of a big domestic market to fuel growth, so Mr Cheong's strategy to accumulate stakes in airlines has seen SIA become a virtual unit trust for the airline industry.

At various times, it's been after airlines in Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Sri Lanka, India and Britain, as did Swissair in building stake in Belgian, Polish and South African carriers.

Mostly, SIA has been excluded from these deals because of its tight links with the Singapore Government that controls it.

But it did secure two big deals in recent years, 25 per cent of Air NZ and 49 per cent of trans-Atlantic specialist Virgin Atlantic, which SIA paid $1.8 billion for in early 2000.

Eighteen months later, Air NZ is struggling to exist while Virgin, post-September 11, specialises in one of the world's least attractive markets.

But where SIA differs from Swissair is that the core airline is well-managed and has a sturdy balance sheet.

Jean-Louis Morisot, aviation analyst at Goldman Sachs in Singapore, believes that, as airlines fall away, SIA and its $2 billion in cash will emerge as a net buyer of regional aviation assets, backed by a wealthy main shareholder, the Singapore Government.

And SIA's deep-ish pockets could be good news for the Australian air traveller.