Recession could last two years: PM

 
 
Agence France Presse
October 28, 2001
SINGAPORE

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RIME Minister Goh Chok Tong has warned Singaporean voters to brace themselves for a deep recession that could last up to two years, but said the ruling party will do all it can to ease the impact of the slowdown.

Goh's People's Action Party (PAP) has already won an overwhelming majority in parliament ahead of Saturday's general elections after standing unopposed in 55 of the 84 seats, but is still fighting to win each of the 29 remaining positions.

In a campaign rally late Saturday, Goh said the city-state's recession, the worst since Singapore became independent in 1965, would last up to nine months under a best-case scenario, but could drag on for 18 to 24 months if conditions deteriorated.

"The recession we have is very, very bleak," Goh was quoted as saying by the Sunday Times when he spoke at a rally to boost the chances of PAP candidates facing challenges from the opposition.

Goh, 60, said the answer lay in whether the US economy would pick up, and whether President George W. Bush's war on terrorism would succeed.

He warned that if Iraq was identified as the cause of the anthrax biological attacks in the United States, and action was taken against President Saddam Hussein's regime, there would be even greater uncertainty.

Singapore, one of the world's top exporters of electronics, is heavily dependent on the US market, which was already slowing down when confidence was shaken further by the September 11 attacks in New York and Washington by Islamic militant hijackers.

Singapore cannot look to sluggish Japan and other Asian economies to spur growth, said Goh, an economist by training.

Reiterating the PAP's appeal for Singaporeans to renew their support for the PAP and reject the opposition, Goh said "the difference is that we can soften the blow, we can do something. We can try to create as many jobs as we can."

In a political message published Sunday, the PAP outlined a package of relief measures for recession-hit Singaporeans, including the issuance of state-backed shares, derived from past budget surpluses, which can be encashed, with the poor getting more shares than better-off Singaporeans.

Hospital charges for Singaporeans warded in cheaper rooms will be reduced by 10 percent, while retrenched workers will be given a 50 percent discount. Electricity charges will also be reduced, thanks to lower oil prices, and poor families will get direct grants to pay for utility bills.

A typical two-income family will receive more than S$3500 (US$1900 US) over the next 12 months in government assistance, said the PAP statement issued by Goh.

"No other country has such a generous assistance scheme as ours for its people," said Goh, urging Singaporeans to "place your trust in the PAP again" and not "take any chances."

Goh has hinted that the PAP was expecting the opposition to retain the two seats it held in the last parliament.

Opposition parties, in turn, are hoping that rising unemployment could result in additional seats going to them and are calling for additional measures to help displaced workers, including some form of unemployment insurance and a minimum-wage law.

The economy is expected to contract by 3.0 percent this year, a spectacular fall from 9.9 percent growth in 2000, and retrenchments are mounting.

The opposition Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) has called upon the government to pay retrenched workers their last full salary for six months after being laid off, three-quarters of their salary for the next six months, and half their salary for the following six months.

It also called for a "Singaporeans First Policy" on hiring, with foreign workers only allowed to take jobs which cannot be filled by Singaporeans and foreigners being retrenched ahead of Singaporeans.


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