But while encouraged by some data announced Friday (Nov 16), both government and private sector economists don't foresee a recovery anytime soon.

Singapore's nonoil domestic exports, or NODX, amounted to S$8.4 billion (US$4.57 billion) in October, 21.6 percent lower than a year ago, but much better than the nearly 30 percent slump analysts had expected. Compared with September -- when exports plunged 30.7 percent on year due in part to disruptions following the Sept. 11 terrorist strikes on the US -- NODX rose nearly 18 percent in October, the Trade Development Board said.

The city-state is the third Asian trading powerhouse to surprise markets recently. Taiwan, whose export-driven economy mirrors Singapore's, last week said exports fell 16.1 percent in October, better than the 37 percent drop expected. South Korea's exports fell 19.3 percent in October, also better than expected despite the fewer number of working days that month compared with a year ago.

The latest data, however, don't suggest Singapore could emerge in the short term from its worst recession since independence in 1965.

"It's premature to conclude that the downturn is bottoming out," says David Cohen, economist at Standard & Poor's MMS International. "We saw some rebound in electronics and chemicals, but I'm still waiting to see if the [global] electronics market has hit a bottom."

DBS Bank Ltd., a unit of government-linked DBS Group Holdings Ltd., said in a research note the economy may only begin to grow again in the second half of next year. The report said that leading economic indicators are "still very weak at this stage." It said there's a "good chance" the economy will shrink 4.5 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2002 but then grow about 2.5 percent in the second half.

The DBS assessment was published shortly after Singapore's Ministry of Trade & Industry, releasing detailed third-quarter economic data, on Friday confirmed its earlier estimate that the economy contracted 5.6 percent, year-on-year, for the three months that ended Sept 30.

"Hopes of a recovery by the end of this year have evaporated" following the Sept 11 terrorist attacks on the US, the ministry said.

The detailed third-quarter data showed Singapore's manufacturing sector shrank by a record percentage in the July to September period as domestic demand slumped and unemployment rose sharply.

"The adverse external environment has affected Singapore significantly," the ministry said.

Manufacturing contracted 19.1 percent from a year ago, worse than the revised 8.8 percent shrinkage in the second quarter. The construction sector, in the doldrums for more than two years but recently showing some signs of recovery, contracted 3.9 percent year-on-year, following a 0.4 percent expansion in the second quarter.

The services industry contracted by 0.5 percent from a year ago, worse than a revised 2.6 percent rate of expansion in the second quarter, as the slump in manufacturing spread to other sectors too.

The unemployment rate climbed sharply to a seasonally adjusted 3.8 percent in the third quarter from 2.6 percent in the second, a clear signal that employers had continued to shed jobs to cut costs.

And aggregate demand declined for the second straight quarter, falling 14 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier. Domestic private consumption expenditure fell 1.9 percent while investment in plants and equipment dropped 11 percent because of poor business sentiment.

-- Wall Street Journal reporter Richard Borsuk and Bernice Tang of Dow Jones Newswires contributed to this article.