However, the upturn will be dependent on a recovery in the US economy -- Singapore's biggest market -- and the state of the global electronics industry, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said in its latest quarterly survey.

"Most respondents now expect a postponement in recovery till the second half of 2002, predicated on an upturn in both the US economy and the global electronics industry," the MAS said in a report.

"This compares with the previous survey where the expectation was for a recovery by end-2001 or early 2002," it said in releasing results of the survey of economists from banks, securities houses and research and management institutions.

MAS noted a "considerable uncertainty in the outlook for GDP (gross domestic product) growth in 2002 as manifested by the wide range in the probability distribution attached to the forecasts."

Some of the economists highlighted further downside risks such as a weaker economic recovery in the United States, an increase in oil prices, and new terrorist attacks, MAS said.

GDP was projected to contract 8.7 percent year-on-year in the December quarter, from a 5.6 percent decline in the September quarter. For 2001, the median forecast was for GDP to contract 2.7 percent, before growing 1.7 percent in 2002.

The official forecast is for the GDP to fall 3.0 percent this year and for growth of between minus 2.0 percent and plus 2.0 percent in 2002.

"Looking ahead, the respondents currently expect a modest turnaround in GDP in 2002 with a median growth forecast of 1.7 percent, compared to 4.8 percent recorded in the last survey," said the MAS, the city-state's de facto central bank.

Singapore's manufacturing sector, a key pillar of its trade-driven economy, is expected to remain weak in line with the global downturn.

"As a result, the 2001-02 full-year forecasts for the manufacturing sector have been revised downwards to negative 12 percent for 2001 and positive 4.1 for 2002," it said.

Singapore, one of Asia's strongest economies, is in its worst economic slump for 37 years because of the weak US economy and the global electronics downturn.

The impact was worsened by the fallout from the September 11 terrorist attacks against the United States.

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