The 21.1 percent year-on-year decline in November to S$7.99 billion (US$4.36 billion) was at the lower end of economists' projections, and an improvement on the 21.6 percent contraction in October.

Crucially for the island's export-dependent economy, the November fall in electronics narrowed to 24 percent or 4.99 billion dollars, down sharply from the 30.4 percent decline posted the previous month.

Electronics exports, which account for a major portion of Singapore's non-oil domestic exports, have been squeezed severely by the weak demand for electronics goods globally and the slowdown in the world's major economies, notably the United States.

The monthly non-oil domestic export data are more closely watched than the overall trade performance because of the high concentration of electronics which accounts for half of the output of the all important manufacturing sector.

Economists said it was likely the non-oil domestic exports figures, widely seen as a gauge of the island's economic health, would improve from here onwards after the record plunge of 30.7 percent recorded in September.

"The 21.1 percent year on year contraction in the November non-oil domestic exports shows that external demand is still in a slump but there is some room for cautious optimism,' said Kaan Quan Hon, an economist at government-linked DBS Bank.

"Chances are that NODX (non-oil domestic exports) will continue to improve, with the contraction moderating further in the first-half of 2002, on the back of the bottoming in the electronic cycle and a low base this year."

But some economists warned against over-optimism, saying the island still faced an uphill battle in overcoming its worst recession since statehood in 1965 because of its high dependency on external demand especially from the United States.

"Any improvement that happens from here is not really likely to be significant until we get into the second half of next year," said Andrew Fung, Rabobank's head of Asia-Pacific treasury research.

"It's a little too early to say it will be a full rebound but I would not expect there to be significant growth in the coming next several months. Virtually everything depends on the US when it comes to Singapore exports," he said.

According to Fung, the November NODX figures suggest the island's gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter will be better than market projections.

"I think what they do point to is the GDP numbers for Q4 will be slightly improved from the third quarter," said Fung, who now sees the island's fourth quarter GDP contraction in the range of 3.0 to 4.0 percent instead of minus 5.0 percent.

Pamela Wong, an economist at Standard and Poor's MMS, agreed it was too early to pop the champagne to celebrate a revival of the once most buoyant economy in Southeast Asia.

"The speed of decline has been moderating but when it will pick up remains a big question," she said.

Third quarter GDP in the three months to September dived a record 5.6 percent, giving Singapore its worst ever year-on-year quarterly contraction.

It forced the government to revise its 2001 growth forecast to minus 3.0 percent from a 0.5-1.5 percent expansion. The economy grew 9.9 percent last year.

For 2002, the government's GDP projection is between minus 2.0 percent contraction and plus 2.0 percent growth.

Wong predicted the economy would shrink 2.9 percent this year with zero growth projected for 2002.

A survey of economists by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the de facto central bank, found the economy was likely to contract 2.7 percent this year and post a 1.7 percent expansion next year.

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