Its ruling elite has a well-earned reputation for strategic sagacity, proceeding originally from the legend of Lee Kuan Yew, who is more or less the Asian Henry Kissinger.

In a long conversation with Goh at the Commonwealth meeting in Coolum this week, I got a fairly sombre tour of regional economic slowdown, a possibly growing terrorist threat and acute challenges ahead.

First terrorism. Goh predicts that Australia will be a terrorist target: ``There is no intelligence that you have terrorist cells active in Australia right now. But you are an ally of the US and you have spoken up strongly in favour of the US so you can expect terrorist groups will aim for American targets within Australia.''

Nonetheless Goh supports Canberra's pro-American posture: ``It's right that Australia speak up strongly against terrorism and take action to eradicate it internationally. It's had a positive effect [on Australia's standing] in the region.''

Goh has been a key US ally in the war on terror, especially through Singapore's provision of naval facilities. He was unpleasantly surprised when Singapore's intelligence agencies discovered a well-developed plot by Islamic terrorists to hit US, Australian and other Western targets in Singapore: ``We knew terrorists operated internationally and would one day operate inside Singapore. We thought such a development might be five years away but they were already there.''

Singapore is likely to be vulnerable again: ``We are very vulnerable. We are an open economy. People move in and out very easily. And we are situated in a region which may become in the future a rather active base for terrorists.

``We are very concerned. First there's this growing resurgence of Islam. It started with the oil shock of 1973. Saudi Arabia and other Middle East countries were suddenly flush with money. Then there was the Iranian revolution [1979] which gave a big boost to revolutionary Islam. Then you had Saudi Arabia and Iran competing to promote their different types of Islam, Wahabism and the Shiites. And of course Southeast Asia was targeted by them.

``You can see even in Singapore that our Muslims are becoming far more conservative in their approach. Of course there's absolutely nothing wrong with a person or a community becoming more religious. It is only the radical or militant part that worries us, when you have militant groups using a religion to advance their causes. In Islam the cleric occupies a very important position, often more important than a politician from the community.''

Singapore has had some difficulties with Indonesia over this. Indonesia has not arrested individuals Singapore has identified as being part of a terrorist network. This led to a celebrated spat between Singapore's former prime minister, Lee Kuan Yew, and Indonesia's Government. Malaysia on the other hand has acted swiftly against terrorist groups and earned Singapore's gratitude.

Because of the naval facilities Singapore offers the US its role in the war on terror has been important. But Goh points out the provision of these facilities long predates September 11. They flow from Singapore's deeply held view that Asia's stability benefits greatly from the US presence. When the US lost its bases in the Philippines a dozen years ago Singapore stepped up to the plate, enlarging its base facilities so they could accommodate US aircraft carriers and taking a certain amount of regional flak as a result. Goh also believes Asia benefits from a strong Australian presence and Singapore is always working to include Australia in regional structures. He sounds an important warning about the danger of our drifting away from South-East Asia, during this time of economic travail in the region. This is not the policy of the Howard Government, he says, which tried unsuccessfully to get ASEAN to form a free trade area with Australia and New Zealand.

While careful not to criticise the Howard government, it is clear Goh would prefer more rapid progress on a Singapore-Australia free trade area: ``It really depends on Australia. Singapore has always argued that we should do an FTA with Australia. My sense is that Australia is keen but at the moment it's not the top item on its agenda. We understand that so we're not pushing for a speedy conclusion but I think it will come eventually. The earliest that could happen in my view would be later this year, but more likely is some time next year.''

Goh doesn't want Australia to drift away from Southeast Asia and one reason he believes it won't is that regional countries such as Singapore will ``keep putting hooks into it to drag it back''.

Goh was surprised and disappointed at the hostile reaction in some quarters to high-profile Singapore investments in Australia, particularly SingTel's purchase of Optus and Singapore Airlines' proposed purchase of a majority stake in Air New Zealand, which would have given it control of Ansett.

Today we can see what an infinitely preferable outcome it would have been to have Ansett a thriving part of SIA rather than out of business altogether. Goh doesn't point this out but it is notable that no one from the Howard Government made a high-profile defence of Singapore investment or of the Singapore relationship generally.

Goh supports Australia's role in Asia not because he loves Akubra hats or finds koalas irresistibly cute, but because of a hard-headed calculation that we have something positive to contribute. Similarly, advocacy of the deepest possible Australian engagement in the region has nothing to do with romantic Orientalism and everything to do with the need to influence the course of events there in a way which is beneficial to our national interests.

Goh's strategic assessment, and his gentle warning, deserve heeding.

                                                            Home