In fact, few outsiders are in a more sensitive bind to the fortunes of that part of the world than this country, particularly ties between China and the United States which supports Taiwan.

Singapore is Taiwan’s sixth-largest trading partner and probably China’s seventh.

Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew, the architect of the state’s China strategy that has kept it free of trouble, spent four days in Taipei last week in one of his trouble-shooting forays.

(Two weeks earlier, he had visited Beijing for talks with Chinese leaders, including President Jiang Zemin.)

Since his departure, stories began to emerge from Taipei – without comment from Singapore – that the republic may soon be moving, reluctantly, at least part of its training facilities out of Taiwan to China.

A source close to Taiwan’s military said the issue was raised during Lee’s visit.

“The Ministry of National Defence was unhappy with the decision that Singapore is to move its training bases to China’s Hainan Island,” he said. The republic has operated three training camps in Taiwan since 1975.

“But we are still not sure if they want a partial pullout, a downgrade of the programme, or a scrapping of the entire one.”

Peter Lin, a parliamentarian from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), confirmed the planned move.

“Some sort of decision has already been made although the government has tried its last-ditch efforts” to persuade Singapore not to move its military training facilities, Lin said.

Earlier this year, he had warned that China had offered to provide Singapore with training facilities as an attempt to sabotage the city-state’s ties with Taiwan.

The possibility of a shift was first reported in the London-based Jane’s Defence Weekly last year.

The publication said that Singapore had been reluctant to accept the offer, the first to a foreign country by China, for fear of changing its current arrangement with Taiwan.

Tiny Singapore, which lacks the training space, had sounded out Beijing before approaching Taiwan – and Lee has repeatedly said Singapore is grateful for its help that stretched back almost 30 years. It is evident that given the choice, it would prefer to remain where it is.

In his memoirs, Lee speaks candidly that it is an agreement (in 1975) that allows Singapore to train infantry, artillery, armour and commando units in Taiwan.

Military cooperation takes place sporadically and quietly to improve Singapore’s techniques – and possibly out of gratitude.

Five months ago, two Singaporean navy’s “Victory” class missile patrol boats paid a port call at its southern harbour after an exercise with Taiwan’s navy. It followed a quiet visit by a Taiwanese naval flotilla of three vessels to Singapore and three South Pacific states on a training mission.

Relations between the island and Taiwan are so sensitive that the reported plan to move out of Taiwan – filed by the foreign news agencies – has not appeared in the Singapore media.

Since Taiwan’s leaders began declaring their island a separate entity, China has become more critical of anyone dealing with it.

Lee’s visit, although scarcely reported, has not escaped Beijing’s public criticism.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman expressed “regret and dissatisfaction” over it and urged Singapore not to harm the city-state’s relations with Beijing.

The office of the Singapore prime minister was reticent on it, saying Lee was making a “private and informal visit.”

Both Taipei and Beijing played down any speculation that he is playing a messenger role.

Lee maintains close ties with both sides and visits them frequently. He hosted landmark talks between Taipei and Beijing in Singapore in 1993.

Wary of its growing economic dependence on China, Taiwan has revived a “go south” campaign to persuade its businesses to invest in Southeast Asia.

It says it wants to reach free-trade agreements with the United States, Japan, New Zealand, Panama and Singapore.

Fearing that a bilateral pact will upset Beijing, the republic is treading carefully, saying it prefers to jointly explore the feasibility of such an accord within the framework of the World Trade Organisation.

When former President Lee Teng-hui first created waves with his two-country statement, seen as a prelude to a declaration of independence, SM Lee was highly critical.

He warned all parties of the danger of miscalculation that would bring disaster to the whole region. That will heighten tensions between China and the United States, which has said it will come to Taiwan’s help if it is attacked.

The fall-out, it is feared, will have an impact on America’s strategic partner, Singapore. The city is providing facilities for US air and naval forces to play a crucial role in the region’s security.

Six months ago, American aircraft carriers began visiting the new Changi naval base. Singapore has made it abundantly clear it welcomes this military presence.

“We built it at our own expense to facilitate the deployment of the US 7th Fleet in Southeast Asian waters,” explained Trade and Industry Minister George Yeo.

“At a time when the region is going through dramatic political change, the presence of these ships has a stabilising effect.”

Some military strategists believe that Indonesia, Malaysia and China have been reassured over Singapore’s intentions and the US role.

But Beijing’s feelings towards Singapore for letting American air and naval forces to use its territory may change in the event of a flare-up with the US over Taiwan.

If that happens, Singapore will probably avoid taking sides.

SM Lee has warned America that if it goes to war with China, its allies in Asia will not support it because they “have to live with Beijing.”

Tim Huxley, a Southeast Asian defence expert at the University of Hull, said: “In an extreme situation, such an open conflict between China and Taiwan, the US might not be able to rely on Singapore’s government making its facilities available.”

The best hope for America’s ally is for Taiwan’s leaders to maintain the status quo and back off from any plan to work for independence.

Seah Chiang Nee is a veteran journalist and editor of the information website littlespeck.com

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