Security Threats

Taliban and al Qaeda forces are set on a prolonged guerrilla war in Afghanistan and along the border with Pakistan. President Hamid Karzai bolstered his Afghan bodyguards with US Special Forces, but this did not prevent an assassination attempt in September.

The continued bloodletting between Israelis and Palestinians complicates President Bush's objective of a regime change in Iraq. Democrats in Congress have been critical, but a most extraordinary development occurred when Republican Party heavyweights went public with their reservations regarding a unilateral attack, their fears that the Gulf would go up in flames, their insistence that support from NATO allies and endorsement by the UN Security Council are necessary and their concern that the financial burden of setting up a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq will be heavy.

The dissension deepened criticism by NATO and Muslim allies alike and helped Saddam work up opposition among Muslims in Southeast Asia, of whom there are some 250 million. Since Desert Storm (1991) the Arabs have cemented their solidarity with Asian Muslims through the dakwah (missionary) movement financed by Saudi groups who have paid for mosques, madrasahs (religious schools) and ulemas (preachers) to spread the teachings of Wahhabism, an austere sect of Islam. Daily television broadcasts, including Al-Jazeera's, portraying the sufferings of Palestinians have induced Asian Muslims to identify with the Palestinians.

Despite the public posturing, however, few doubt the determination of President Bush to remove Saddam and his weapons of mass destruction. Vice President Dick Cheney stated explicitly: "The risks of inaction are far greater than the risk of action." Should a chemical or biological attack take place, the critics of President Bush would be forgotten, but he would not be forgiven.

To quell the growing disquiet that a unilateral preemptive strike would create a dangerous precedent in international law, President Bush--before the UN General Assembly on Sept12--challenged the UN Security Council to issue an ultimatum to Iraq to comply with UN resolutions or face US military action. The way is now open for UN involvement that would enable NATO allies to support America's position and to reduce the level of opposition from Muslim governments. But if an attack on Iraq were to drag on for months, it would rouse the Arab street to frenzy, and Asian Muslims would react in sympathy. To avoid this, America needs to deploy overwhelming force in Iraq to ensure a swift campaign that can ultimately showcase the Iraqis celebrating their liberation from a tyrant. Action under a UN Security Council resolution would enable Mr Bush to achieve his objectives with the maximum international support. He would then have registered a salutary warning to other regimes amassing weapons of mass destruction.

The great unknown is how long the US will have to remain in Iraq in order to set up a new dispensation there.

Economic Worries

The other big challenge for Mr Bush is to keep the global economy on an even keel despite a war in Iraq. Talk of war has sent the price of oil to just under $30 per barrel, unsettled an already hesitant economic recovery in America and caused Asian exports to slow down. A prolonged war might spike the price of oil even higher, causing a worldwide recession. These uncertainties add to the pessimism that has been prevalent since the US stock market's bubble burst. When the Dow and the S&P go down, East Asian and European exchanges follow suit.

The huge wealth destruction in the US has been felt in East Asia. Asians hope the Federal Reserve's low interest rates can keep US housing prices and consumer confidence up. They worry, though, when skeptical US analysts warn that the housing market is another bubble waiting to burst. Were that to happen, it would halt the US recovery and cause another recession in Asia. Pessimism was not so contagious a decade ago, before fund managers and multinational corporation plants worldwide were linked to their head offices in New York or Silicon Valley by computer 24 hours a day.

Japan has not been able to get out of its economic morass. The EU is unable to pick up the slack. In this totally integrated world America is the conductor, and the pace of its economy is the metronome for East Asia. The US must demonstrate leadership in the economic field, as it has done in the military.

The strongest signal of America's determination to exercise leadership in the world economy was its passing of a wide-ranging trade promotion act. This has restored hope that despite recent agricultural subsidies and steel tariffs, the US still wants further trade liberalization. A WTO Doha Round that increases market access for agricultural products will help developing countries more than any aid program. It is key to bringing about these countries' growth and prosperity. And when the poor feel they are sharing in the benefits of globalization, their anger and frustration will lessen.

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