| Agence
France Presse April 18, 2004 SINGAPORE SINGAPORE is on track to be one of Asia's best economic performers this year after hacking its way out of an unfamiliar place in the regional cellar due to a severe recession, a global slowdown and SARS, economists said. Preliminary data showing 7.3 percent annual growth in gross domestic product (GDP) and robust March export numbers indicate the economic recovery has very solid foundations, they said. With GDP projected to grow by as much as 7.5 percent, Singapore looks set to have one of the highest growth rates in the region outside Asian giants India and China, whose economies are sizzling hot at the near 10-percent mark. "I will expect Singapore to be among the top performers this year in terms of GDP -- the other two countries being Malaysia and Thailand," said regional economist Song Seng Wun of G.K. Goh brokerage. Song has possibly the highest forecast for Singapore's GDP this year at 7.5 percent, with others projecting the economy to expand between six and seven percent. Malaysia and Thailand are targetting GDP growth of seven percent or higher, while Hong Kong expects between six and seven percent. Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) finance ministers who met here this month said the region is poised to grow by up to 5.9 percent this year, the highest rate since the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis. For Singapore, it has been a hard climb. The economy crashed from nearly 10 percent growth in 2000 to shrink by 2.4 percent in 2001 when a US-led global slowdown precipitated the city-state's worst-ever recession. A nascent recovery in 2002 was nipped in the bud by the fallout from the war against Iraq and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) crisis, which killed 33 people out of 238 infections here in the first half of 2003. GDP expanded a mere 1.1 percent that year. In the latest economic data released Friday, non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose 17.1 percent in March from the previous year on the continued strong showing by electronics and pharmaceuticals shipments. "Overall, this reaffirms the recovery story and boosts optimism that we will probably see an upside surprise to the full-year growth," said United Overseas Bank economist Low Ping Yee. Low sees GDP growing at 6.1 percent this year, up from her original forecast of 5.5 percent. Joseph Tan, an economist with Standard Chartered Bank, said the NODX rise "continues to suggest that the export-led recovery remains fairly robust." "It does indicate that the export growth will continue. I think that's going to be positive for Singapore's growth this year," said Tan, who has revised his full-year GDP forecast to 6.6 percent from 4.5 percent previously. Singapore-based DBS Group, Southeast Asia's largest bank, said domestic demand is expected to gather pace in the second quarter as private consumption picks up and supports the export-led growth. "Stronger-than-anticipated domestic demand conditions may arise due to liquidity translating into loan growth, abatement of competitiveness pressures and flexible wage policies," it said. "These factors may boost employment and wages in the manufacturing sector and spill over to the service sector." China's barrelling economy and the recovery in the United States and Japan, should also augur well for Singapore and Asia's other export-driven economies, analysts said. In a pre-emptive strike against inflation to further support the growth momentum, the central bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), said last week it will allow the local dollar to gradually appreciate against the US currency. Leslie Tang, an economist with UOB Kay Hian, said he did not expect the Singapore dollar to appreciate to a point that would hurt exports. "I do not think the MAS will allow a sharp rise in the Singapore dollar so I don't think our export performance will be affected," Tang said. US demand should continue due to the improving employment situation there, while a strong euro should be a key driver for European imports from Singapore, he said. |
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