Singapore raises 2004 economic growth forecast to 5.5-7.5 percent

 
  Agence France Presse
May 17, 2004
SINGAPORE



SINGAPORE on Monday, May 17, sharply raised its growth forecast for this year to 5.5-7.5 percent as the government pointed to a strengthening global economy and surging domestic business confidence.

The revised figures were a significant upgrade from the previous 3.5-5.5 percent estimate and came as the government said the city-state's economy expanded in the first three months of 2004 by 7.5 percent year-on -year.

The Trade and Industry Ministry said Singapore's economic recovery, following 1.1 percent growth in 2003, was mainly due to favourable external factors.

"The global economic recovery has continued to strengthen in recent months, supported by a low interest rate environment and expanding international trade and investments," the ministry said.

"The global economic outlook is expected to remain healthy."

The ministry highlighted the United States as continuing to be a key driver of Singapore's growth, while also giving upbeat assessments of other key economies Japan and China.

Widely anticipated global interest rate hikes, led by the United States, and record-high world oil prices are not expected to slow Singapore's economy, the government said.

"The increase in interest rates is expected to be measured and unlikely to derail the economic recovery," the ministry said.

"Even if oil prices remain at about 40 dollars per barrel, the International Energy Agency has estimated that growth in the developed economies would only be reduced by about half a percentage point."

Singapore's March quarter performance was better than the preliminary estimate of 7.3 percent, with the robust display buoyed by better exports and stronger consumer confidence at home.

External trade grew an annual 17 percent in the quarter to 131 billion Singapore dollars (77 billion US dollars), the fastest quarterly growth posted since the fourth quarter in 2000, the ministry said.

Domestic demand rose 16 percent in the first three months of the year, overturning a one percent decline in the previous quarter on higher private consumption and investment activity.

"The momentum of economic growth continued unabated in the first quarter," Friedrich Wu, director of the ministry's economic division, said at a media briefing.

"In the first quarter, all major sectors registered positive growth."

The manufacturing sector, a key engine of Singapore's export-led economy, grew 12.2 percent in the March quarter on the back of better electronics exports as well as pharmaceutical shipments to the world's major markets.

Wu said Singapore's growth momentum should remain for the rest of the year as the composite leading index (CLI), which leads economic activity by three quarters, rose for the fourth consecutive quarter with a 6 .3 percent jump in the first three months of the year.

Government data released later Monday showed Singapore's economic expansion had indeed continued past the March quarter, with the main non-oil domestic exports (NODX) sector growing 15.1 percent in April from a year ago.

Total trade in April grew 22.3 percent to S$46.97 billion (US$27.63 billion) while NODX was worth $10.47 billion for the month, government trade body International Enterprise Singapore said.

"This robustness in growth was seen in all the key trade components," it said.

United Overseas Bank economist Low Ping Yee described the quarterly growth outcome as a "super performance" for the Singapore economy.

"Overall it does suggest the growth momentum is strengthening. This is the first time in over three years that all major sectors posted year-on-year growth," Low told AFP.


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