China has reacted with fury to this month's visit by Lee, Singapore's Deputy Prime Minister and the nation's next leader, releasing a number of angry statements and repeatedly warning that bilateral economic and political ties are at risk.

Rejecting Singapore's explanation that the trip was private and unofficial, Beijing cancelled a visit to the city-state by central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan.

On Thursday, China's ambassador to Singapore Zhang Yun also said talks for a China-Singapore free-trade agreement scheduled in November could become a casualty.

Analysts said China's anger was heightened by the fact that Lee would become Singapore's next prime minister on August 12.

"The Chinese leadership is extremely concerned with international support for its 'One-China' stand and it therefore expects its key neighbours to indicate strong support for this position," said Joseph Cheng, a political science professor at the City University of Hong Kong.

China has been wary of any international gesture that could be interpreted as supportive of Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian's move towards independence, he said.

Beijing opposes any official visit by its diplomatic partners to Taiwan, which it regards as part of its territory waiting to be reunified, by force if necessary. The two sides split at the end of a civil war in 1949.

"China's position is that it cannot tolerate this kind of high level visit... There must be no sympathy for Chen's pro-independence stand," Cheng said.

"China is trying to generate as much international support as possible to deter Taiwan from moving further down the road to independence."

Beijing had attempted to dissuade Lee, the son of Singapore's founding father Lee Kuan Yew, from proceeding with the visit.

But the younger Lee, who had met the Taiwan leader and other officials, said cancelling the trip at China's request "would have undermined our right to make independent decisions and damaged our international standing".

Analysts said China's ire should eventually subside.

"If you look at it historically, China will protest as loudly as possible but over time, rationality will dominate," an analyst with a Singapore-based think-tank told AFP on condition of anonymity.

"China has to make a point in the strongest terms possible, especially because Deputy Prime Minister Lee will become the next prime minister. That is one factor why the China reaction is strong."

He said China might "shelve" the scheduled free-trade talks but discussions would eventually be revived.

"Bilateral ties are very important to both countries. Both sides will not want to see a collapse of relations," he said.

Hong Kong political science professor Cheng agreed.

"I think China certainly values its good relations with Singapore and the incident should not generate a very severe setback in bilateral ties.

"But Singapore has to appreciate that it can no longer maintain a very high level of relations with Taiwan as in previous decades," Cheng said.

"There will be some gestures indicating China's displeasure but these will not be of long-term consequence or lead to significant consequences."

Cheng cited China's retaliatory measures against France for selling naval frigates to Taiwan in 1991 but relations later normalised.

The Singapore-based analyst disputed comments that the visit was a mistake, saying it was not a characteristic of the government to make such a blunder on the diplomatic front.

"But I don't think they expected the fury to be this intense," he added.

Lee seemed to handle his first diplomatic test as prime minister designate well, the analyst said.

Asked what Singapore would do to repair the damage, City University of Hong Kong's Cheng, said: "Singapore does not have to do anything. All it has to do is to avoid such visits in the future."


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