Results of the August survey by the Monetary Authority of Singaporeof 19 private sector economists showed a median forecast of 5.0 percent growth next year.

For 2004, the median forecast is for the gross domestic product (GDP) to expand 8.4 percent, which is within the government's official projection of between 8.0 and 9.0 percent growth.

The latest 2004 growth forecast is higher than the 7.0 percent projection by the economists in June.

"While the respondents have maintained their median GDP growth forecast at 5.0 percent for 2005, they felt that the likelihood of downside risks for next year has increased," the MAS, which is the city-state's central bank, said in a statement.

"The key risk factors include sustained higher oil prices, a slowdown in the major economies (US and Japan), a hard-landing in China and continuing geopolitical uncertainties."

The statement said however that several economists also highlighted the possibility of better-than-expected growth in Japan and the United States.

Oil prices touched all-time highs and threatened to creep to US$50 a barrel last week, driven by fears of fuel supply disruptions in Iraq and Russia.

They have retreated to just above $43 after the fears eased but traders would not rule out another spike.

The economists expect the unemployment rate, which was at 4.5 percent in the June quarter, to moderate to 4.3 percent in the September quarter and futher ease to 4.0 percent by the yearend.

Inflation is expected to increase to 1.8 percent, which is within the government's forecast, while domestic interest rates should creep up to 1.28 percent by the end of the year, in tandem with a rise in US interest rates

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