No decision has been announced but the ruling party has been oiling the machinery to get it ready, should the political leaders decide to hold a snap election as early as December.

Others speculate that it will be held in around March or June next year.

The register of voters was opened for inspection from Sept 28 to Oct 11, and some government goodies, like topping up the Central Provident Fund, dished out.

In recent weeks, ministers have begun visiting their constituencies or having dialogues with citizens across the island.

In another indication, the “tea sessions” in which leaders of the ruling party select candidates are in the final stage.

Some insiders say that civil servants have started preparation meetings. Some schools are being readied for use as polling stations for a December poll, I was told.

That, of course, does not necessarily mean it will happen so soon, merely preparation if a snap decision is made.

At any rate, the importance of the election lies not on timing details, but on its significance because of two factors that may have a historical impact on Singapore.

It will the first election faced by Lee Hsien Loong, who became Prime Minister only in August. It will be his important acceptability test among Singaporeans.

It will also be the first since the city fell into an economic crisis in recent years, including the SARS crisis, which had resulted in a lot of pain for Singaporeans who are used to the good life.

Did it sour public support for a party that has governed them for 39 years?

Many Singaporeans lost jobs, pushing unemployment to record levels and workers have largely suffered wage cuts as investors moved to China and other “cheaper” countries.

Of late the news in the media has been much more cheering; economic growth may hit 8 to 9% and unemployment has dropped significantly.

Surprisingly, however, many Singaporeans seem to be discarding such pessimism, insisting that business all around them is still weak and meaningful jobs hard to come by.

The worse sufferers are the retrenched 40-something professionals and executives who are still unable to find jobs. Most are family men, the pillars of the middle class.

Above all, the election will be a test of Lee’s ability to get Singaporeans to accept his tough cost-cutting measures that include “outsourcing” by large Govern ment-linked entities, including SIA, Changi Airport operators and several ministries.

It is a tough start for a new leader. His problems are different from those faced by his father, Lee Kuan Yew, but they are no less daunting.

His government has to bite the bullet to improve Singapore’s future, which entails sharp short-term pain for Singaporeans, some of whom may express their unhappiness through the ballot.

The government has closed whole departments, contracting their work to outside companies mostly in the country.

The workers are offered retrenchment benefits and jobs by the “new” companies at reduced salaries that are 20 to 25% less.

More “outsourcing” is likely to come. The government says it has no other choice.

SIA, airport and port operators have gone into it in the face of strong competition from budget airlines and Malaysian airport-and-harbour operators.

Another trend is the proposed flexible structure, in which 70% of wages is fixed and 30% moves up or down depending on company profits and the worker’s performance.

Some companies are signing up workers on one-to-two-year renewable contracts or even temp-workers on a month-to-month basis, reducing the intake of permanent staff.

Workers complain these measures introduce an element of uncertainty in their future, reducing their ability to buy property or cars on long-term loans.

Some party stalwarts call the coming poll a test of the nation’s “shared destiny” in an extremely tough and challenging environment.

With the uncertainty of a global economy and threat of terrorism, will Singaporeans stay together?

In his recent interview with broadcast journalist Charlie Rose, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew said a successful nation needs more than just successful entrepreneurs going about making money.

Its leaders have to forge their people towards a shared destiny, not simply each man for himself, he added.

Online speculation is increasing. Some letters have identified jobs, cost of living, foreign workers and high ministers’ pay as “hot” issues.

“I think it’s best to focus on bread and butter matters and leave out stuff like human rights, democracy, freedom, etc,” urges “chemgen”.

Another poster, Zennman1, simply says, “Jobs, Jobs, Jobs!”

That the People’s Action Party, with its vast resources, will do well in the coming election is not in doubt. Uncertain, however, is the size of the victory as a result of the economic pains and two other factors.

Firstly, some 180,000 youths will be first-time voters and, secondly, the government has said it will arrange for the first time for 100,000 to 150,000 Singaporeans abroad to vote.

In the 2001 election, the People’s Action Party won 75.3% of contested votes (walkovers in 55% of seats), a sharp rise from the 65% won in 1997.

Many observers believe it will have done well if it could repeat this feat and retain its 82 out of 84 seats. There is some speculation that the opposition may win a few more seats through a group constituency.

o Seah Chiang Nee is a veteran journalist and editor of the information website littlespeck.com (e-mail: cnseah2000@ littlespeck.com )

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