Total trade rose 22 percent to a record S$580 billion in 2004 thanks to the strong economic recovery in the United States, Japan and European Union and robust exports of electronics.

The NODX expansion in 2004 was an improvement over the 15 percent in 2003, International Enterprise (IE) Singapore said in a statement which described last year's overall trade performance as "exceptionally strong".

"Looking ahead, 2005 is expected to be a year of consolidation, with growth rates in key markets reverting towards their more sustainable long-term growth trend," said the trade promotion agency.

The key Straits Times share index ended half a percentage point higher at 2,087.12, but dealers did not see the trade numbers as a factor in stock market sentiment, and said the moderation in 2005 had already been anticipated.

Singapore's gross domestic product surged 8.1 percent in 2004, after coming off a very low base of 1.1 percent in 2003, and has been forecast to expand by 3-5 percent this year.

NODX for all of 2004 reached S$132.8 billion. NODX are regarded as the best measure of Singapore's trade performance, with electronics accounting for 52 percent of the total.

In December, NODX expanded 8 percent compared with a year earlier, which was within economists' forecasts.

"All top 10 NODX markets recorded strong positive growth in 2004," IE Singapore said, with exports to China, Hong Kong, the EU, South Korea and Australia maintaining double-digit growth rates.

"More notably, NODX to Malaysia and the US recovered from the contraction in 2003 to post growth of 12 percent and 6.4 percent respectively for the year," the agency said.

The EU, United States and Malaysia are Singapore's top three export markets.

In 2004, the EU accounted for the highest share of Singapore exports at 19.9 percent, closely followed by the United States on 17 percent. China and Hongkong had a combined share of 16.8 percent.

The government expected growth in total trade to slow to 7 to 9 percent, with NODX growing an estimated 6 to 8 percent.

IE Singapore chief executive Lee Yi Shyan said the consensus was for flat growth in electronics exports, which account for just over half of NODX.

"I think the rates given to us by various export sources are flat, meaning plus or minus two percent," he said.

"On the whole, we are cautiously optimistic about 2005."

The volatile pharmaceuticals sector may not be able to offset the weakness in electronics, Lee said, as its contribution to growth usually lags.

For 2004, however, Lee said the sector performed particularly well because it was a "harvest year" for the pharmaceutical plants that were set up earlier.

IE Singapore research and statistics division manager Rebecca Loh said no new production facilities were expected to be built in Singapore this year and that may be a "limiting factor" for export growth in 2005.

However, non-electronic exports were expected to take up the slack amid expectations that global demand for electronics will be softer until the second half of 2005.

IE Singapore said its forecasts assumed a weaker US dollar, a stronger euro and crude oil prices ranging between 40 and 42 dollars per barrel.

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