Singapore raises 2006 growth forecast

  Reuters
August 8, 2006
SINGAPORE

By Mia Shanley

THE Singapore government has raised its 2006 economic growth forecast to 6.5 to 7.5 percent from a range of 5 to 7 percent previously, after a strong first-half expansion, the prime minister said on Tuesday, Aug 8.

The government's revised forecast implies that growth could slow in the second half of the year, economists said, making it likely that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) would stick to its current policy of gradual, modest appreciation of its currency.

"After the past few years of upgrading and restructuring our economy, Singapore is in a much stronger position than before," Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in a televised address to the country on the eve of the National Day holiday.

"Our strategies are working and our economy is growing and creating jobs," Lee said, adding that in the first half, growth was 9.4 percent.

Lee, who is also finance minister, repeated the government's earlier concerns about the possible impact of slower growth in the United States and higher oil prices on the trade-dependent economy.

The Singapore dollar, which reached a 2-1/2 month high this week, rose to 1.5724 per dollar after the speech.

"The MAS will probably stick to its current policy," said Song Seng Wun, an economist at CIMB-GK Research.

"With this growth forecast, they are expecting a sharp moderation in growth momentum, so they would not want to pursue a more aggressive policy."

Singapore's final second-quarter GDP figures will be released on Thursday at 8 am.

The government had estimated, based mainly on April and May data, that growth slowed sharply in the second quarter to a seasonally adjusted, annualised rate of 1.1 percent from 7.0 percent in the first quarter.

Economists polled by Reuters expect second-quarter growth to be raised to an annualised 3.1 percent.

Annual growth was 7.5 percent in the second quarter, the advance estimates showed.

Economists remain cautious about global technology demand, even though they expect a strong domestic economy may help offset slower growth in manufacturing.

Analysts polled by Reuters expect 7.0 percent growth this year.

(Additional reporting by Fayen Wong)


                                                      Home