There has been widespread speculation that lead investigator, Prof Oetarjo Diran of the Indonesian Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission, has been having difficulty getting records that might provide evidence of the pilot's financial situation, and resolve reports that Tsu took out a $3-million life-insurance policy shortly before the crash.

At a private December meeting with families of the victims, Diran told them that the probe into the "human factor" in the crash was like a "black hole" - information going in and not coming out. But in a telephone interview, Diran insisted that the slow pace of the investigation in no way reflected stonewalling on the part of Singapore authorities. He said it was a matter of confidentiality and banking laws.

Diran also said that while families of the victims were pushing him to use the courts to get the information, he wasn't willing to go that route because he didn't want to be seen to be conducting a criminal investigation. "I have to convince the Singapore authorities I'm on the honest side," he added, "that Iam not using this information for litigation."

Diran has not ruled out the suicide theory. For that matter, he has not dismissed the possibility of mechanical failure either. But in early February, Aviation Week and Space Technology cited sources "close to the investigation" as saying that "suicide by the captain is now regarded as the only possible cause." The US trade journal reported that three separate flight tests in simulators indicated that only deliberate action by the crew could have prompted the Boeing 737 to crash the way it did. A SilkAir spokesman told Asiaweek that "speculative stories like this do not help the situation at all. SilkAir is as keen as any other party to find the cause of the accident, but we shall leave it to the investigating team to complete their investigation and state their conclusions."

The Dec 19, 1997, crash was never going to be an easy one to solve. Consider how the cockpit voice recorder and the digital flight data recorder mysteriously stopped working six minutes apart and several minutes before the crash. Prior to going blank, the recorders showed nothing unusual; Diran says the cockpit recorder caught "normal chit-chat" between pilots. In some quarters, the unexplained failure of the "black boxes" seems to lend further credence to the suicide theory. Moreover, before the crash, a SilkAir co-pilot reportedly told his superiors that Tsu had disconnected a flight recorder to cover up a botched landing in Indonesia. SilkAir officials would not elaborate beyond saying a co-pilot had indeed filed a report.

Further complicating the investigators' task, the 10-month-old jet essentially flew into the ground with its engines going full tilt - reducing the 737 to fragments and making it hard to ascertain whether mechanical failure brought the plane down. However, investigators have focused on the jet's tail section, parts of which were found some 4 km from the main wreckage, suggesting it separated from the plane well before it went into the river. The 737 has a history of rudder malfunctions; at least two other crashes bore some hallmarks of the SilkAir disaster.

In the absence of a conclusive finding, families of the victims are taking matters into their own hands - lobbying the Singaporean and Indonesian governments for information, and considering class-action lawsuits against Boeing. Several families have hired American law firms that specialize in aviation cases, on the assumption that U.S. courts will award higher damages.

In late January, after being criticized for cavalier treatment of victims' families over compensation payouts, SilkAir upped its offer from the required $75,000 to a flat $140,000 per passenger. Only five families have accepted the money, which means agreeing not to bring future legal action should the airline be found liable. The rest are figuring out what to do while awaiting the outcome of the investigation.

Singapore law dictates that they have two years, until December 18, to file a lawsuit, though the way things are going no one expects the investigation to be resolved by then. In any case, money is not really the issue for most families. Says Beevers: "Everyone wants the truth. Compensation won't bring them back."

                              Published in the Asiaweek March 5, 1999.