S'pore tries to figure out Indonesia's new leaders

For Singapore, there used to be two simple rules of engagement with Indonesia: Assiduously build ties with President Suharto, and do the same with the Indonesian armed forces. That was evident in 1997, when the city-state's government leaned on the local Foreign Correspondents' Association to withdraw a speaking invitation to Indonesian opposition leader Megawati Sukarnoputri, lest it upset the Suharto regime.

But economic turmoil has radically reshuffled Southeast Asia's political deck. When Megawati finally made a public appearance in Singapore on March 15, the crowd of about 600 included some of Singapore's leading politicians, bureaucrats and academics. After the speech, the 52-year-old daughter of former President Sukarno had lunch with government officials and a roundtable discussion with the Singapore Press Club.

Her message was comforting, though perhaps shaped for her audience. She spoke of her commitment to the market economy, to transparency, and to the International Monetary Fund's rescue plan. She offered few specifics, but insisted that Singapore-Indonesia relations would be strong if she became president later this year. The Singaporeans, she told the gathering, "are always our friends."

Singapore hopes that's true. The city-state, which spent three decades building business and diplomatic links with Indonesia under the old regime, is now preparing itself for the next one. As long as it's been a city-state, Singapore has figured it needed a stable and hospitable Indonesia to ensure its own security and stability. But since Suharto's fall in May, Indonesia has been in turmoil and Singapore's relations with President B.J. Habibie have grown increasingly acrimonious.

Singapore is casting about for a new strategy while trying to size up Indonesians who could be players in the next government. National Mandate Party leader Amien Rais visited in February--like Megawati, at the invitation of the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, a body headed by one of Singapore's top diplomats. Abdurrahman Wahid, leader of the National Awakening Party, will be in the Lion City on March 24. Also on the invited list, says IDSS director S.R. Nathan, are Golkar chairman Akbar Tanjung and deputy chairman Marzuki Darusman.

"They've already started to cast their net wider than in the past," says Bruce Gale, a Singapore-based director of Political and Economic Risk Consultancy. "They don't want to be caught flat-footed as they were last time. They cultivated too narrow a range, and weren't thinking ahead about what was going to happen post-Suharto."

Both Megawati and Amien attracted big crowds. Following their appearances, local analysts compared notes and pondered whether the speakers would be beneficial to stability--and to Singapore--if they were part of the next government. During his address, long-time populist Amien spoke of attracting foreign investors. A sampling of opinion afterwards ranged from pleasure to suspicion that he was tailoring his message to a ready audience. After hearing Megawati, Singaporeans asked one another if she'd have the focused economic policies to pull Indonesia out of the crisis.

The process of coming to terms with Indonesia's new era is crucial for Singapore, which failed to cultivate a broad spectrum of the Indonesian political community under Suharto. When the long-time president was forced to step down last May, relations between the two countries quickly deteriorated. Habibie, whose nationalistic economic policies had brought him into conflict with Singaporean interests for years, was angered by withering comments about him from Singapore Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew.

Acrimony has become more public in recent weeks. In February, Habibie called Singapore a racist country that discriminates against its Malay minority, top Habibie adviser Dewi Fortuna Anwar said Singapore risked being seen as a "fair-weather friend" if it didn't help Indonesia garner foreign investment, and Cooperatives Minister Adi Sasono warned in an interview with Radio Singapore International that nations which "joined in the grand party" of the Suharto era needed to change their tune.

Singapore leaders expect more heat between now and June, when Indonesians will go to the polls. But they need to keep the underlying waters from boiling over. In recent years, several big government-linked companies have developed broad business connections in Indonesia; broadly redistributive economic policies that Indonesians, most prominently Sasono, have mooted would threaten these ties.

Singapore is also worried about political and social spillover. Last year, the government suggested that illegal immigrants would be imprisoned and caned. If Megawati perused the daily Straits Times on the day of her speech, she would have seen a report about how Singapore's Police Coast Guard chases down people trying to enter local waters illegally. In February, two ships full of Indonesians sank off Malaysia's southern Johor state, and a Johor official warned in early March of 20,000 potential immigrants gathered on Indonesian islands south of Singapore.

Even as it searches for new friends in Indonesia, however, Singapore hasn't forgotten its old ones. It's pushing ahead with a project to pipe natural gas from Indonesia's West Natuna field, and working harder than ever to cultivate ties with the Indonesian military. Whatever Singaporeans may think of their neighbours, they know they have to live with them.