PM Goh warns of Singapore's shrinking population

SINGAPORE Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong warned Wednesday the island state's population was shrinking mainly because its large number of highly-educated women remained single.

"The statistics show clearly that we are not replacing ourselves. This is a serious problem," Goh told parliament in a lengthy address as he wrapped up a debate on challenges ahead of the nation.

Goh said Singapore's total fertility rate, a key fertility indicator showing whether the population was replacing itself, had fallen steadily from 1.87 in 1990 to 1.5 last year and was likely to dip below 1.5 in 1999.

A population is considered to be replacing itself if it can maintain a total fertility rate of about two -- meaning a woman will on average have two children in her lifetime.

Predominantly-Chinese Singapore has a population of about three million, excluding foreigners working here.

Goh said under a new population policy introduced by the government in 1987, at least 50,000 births a year were expected but "our actual birth numbers were nowhere near the 50,000 mark in the past five years."

In 1998, the number of births came to only 43,664, far short of the target that the government set, he said.

"If the declining fertility trend persists, and it is likely to be the case, our citizen population of three million will grow to about 3.5 million by 2030 and then start to decline," Goh warned.

He said the 3.5 million Singaporeans at that time would not produce sufficient wealth to look after the needs of the old and society in general.

Goh listed urbanisation, education, changing lifestyles, singlehood and late marriages as among reasons for the declining fertility rate.

Reacting to an MP's suggestion about giving incentives to fathers as part of efforts to get Singaporeans to have more children, Goh said: "I am not sure paternity leave is the solution because our main problem is the large number of highly-educated women who remain single."

He said among those with post-secondary qualifications, about one in five women was likely to remain single in her lifetime.

"So we must try to increase the marriage rate of our women, particularly those with higher education," he added.

Goh said as Singapore's population was not replacing itself, it had no choice but to selectively admit new immigrants with skills, high education and talents.